Snow Threat (2/19)

**red66** · February 17th, 2012, 08:42 AM

I was wondering what the forum weather guys were thinking about the snow threat for Sunday? Looks like if everything comes together it could be an accumulating heavy wet snow.

**beamer_ball** · February 17th, 2012, 07:56 PM

Its awfully close. The cutoff from very heavy to moderate and even light, looks to be really sharp...so that means a very difficult forecast and a small change in track, intensity, and other factors, could mean big changes in totals. Right now, this area seems to be anywhere from the light up to the moderate side of it all. Some of the main computer models are locating the heaviest swath of snow just slightly to our north over eastern KY with totals there from 6-12 or more of snow and some of the more recent runs are dropping that band ever so closer to this area. Me and LCAS follow WSAZ meteorologist Chris Bailey and he's got a 6-12 or so band very close to us with 3-6 generally over the area. One of the main Crappu...I mean Accuweather guys has a wide 6-12 into here, KY, and elsewhere. Rob Williams (WJHL) thinks a dusting/light accumulations in the Tri-Cities, a couple of inches i the TN/NC mountains, atl least 4 or more in areas like Wise, Clintwood, Grundy and so on, and 6-8 inches across eastern KY...heaviest snows setting up north of Abingdon through eastern KY. What's interesting and confusing is that the NWS didn't have snow in the forecast at all for Sunday until this afternoon. Not quite sure why that was considering most everything was indicating accumulating snows. The Morristown NWS has around an inch for the Tri-Cities area, 1-3 into most of Lee, Scott, Washington, and 3-6 (locally up to 8) across parts of Wise and Russell. The HPC highlights area in a high probability of 4 or more inches; Wise and points north in a slight probability for 8 or more.

The possibility is there for more or less as usual...a lot depends on how quick the changeover from rain to snow occurs here. Keep in mind that some of the big ones come from the southern track type storms. Also it looks to be a wet, heavy snow...the one a couple of years ago was a heavy, wet snow that created all the tree/power issues and that one wasn't really a very big one overall. Just don't be surprised/caught off guard by anything...you never know with these type storms.

Charleston NWS has Buchanan and D ickenson Counties are under a Winter Storm Watch as of now.
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

**beamer_ball** · February 18th, 2012, 02:04 AM

Some of the latest model trends shift heavier bands a little farther to the south. NAM places the heaviest axis right over the area, so we'll see what the next runs trend toward.

Morristown has included Wise and Russell in Winter Storm Watches now.
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

**beamer_ball** · February 18th, 2012, 11:43 AM

Winter storm watches were posted this morning to include Lee, Scott, and Washington Counties.
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

**beamer_ball** · February 18th, 2012, 04:49 PM

Winter Storm Warnings posted for Lee, Russell, Scott, Washington, and Wise Counties.
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

**red66** · February 18th, 2012, 04:58 PM

How much do you think Lee County will actually see?

**beamer_ball** · February 18th, 2012, 11:53 PM

Seems like around a few inches is still likely in the lower elevations. High elevations around the area could get a really good one. Its a tough call either way. This a southern track storm and factors like dynamic cooling could come into play, and history says big snows come from these. But the way things have gone lately, you'd probably think the lower probabilities. I've seen the mention of sleet now probably mixing in with the snows and if that's the case then that could cut into snow totals, also a new factor going against it is thunderstorm development over the Gulf states may inhibit the moisture feed to the north some. But again, its a favorable track and still likely to be a good feed of moisture coming up. A lot depends on how quick the colder air gets pulled in and how much moisture is left behind once the changeover occurs.