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The scenario reportedly assumes that Iranian oil production falls by up to 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Iran, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), produces about 3.2m barrels of oil a day. Last year it ranked as the world’s second largest source of supply growth after the US.
If a conflict led to disruptions outside Iran, such as the market losing 2 million bpd or more, prices could spike by $50 a barrel, according to the note. Brent would eventually settle around $100 in 2025, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) would come down to $93, it predicted.
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