FOREX COMMENTARY - SEPTEMBER

[profi-forex]

Today`s data (07.09.2004):

JPY

01:00am ? Leading Economic Index prev. 60.0% for. 66.7%

01:00am ? Coincident Index prev. 88.9% for. 77.8%

07:50pm ? Money Suply yy prev. 1.9% for. 1.9%

CHF

01:45am ? Unemployment Rate prev. 3.6% for. 3.6%

01:45am ? Unemployment Rate s.a prev. 3.9% for. 3.9%

GBP

04:30am ? Industrial Production m/m prev. -0.3% for. 0.4%

04:30am ? Industrial Production y/y prev. 0.5% for. 0.5%

04:30am ? Manufacturing Production prev. -0.7% for. 0.5%

08:30am ? NIESR GDP Estimate prev. 0.9%

EUR

05:00am ? Euro-zone GDP s.a. q/q prev. 0.6% for. 0.5%

05:00am ? Euro-zone GDP s.a. y/y prev. 1.3% for. 2.0%

05:00am ? EC Publishes Q3 & Q4 GDP Forecasts

DEM

06:00am ? Industrial Production m/m prev. -1.4% for. 0.9%

06:00am ?Industrial Production y/y prev. 2.7% for. 1.5%

CAD

08:30am ? Building Permits m/m prev. 27.1%

10:00am ? Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 51 for. 55

USD

01:00pm ? Fed McTeer Speaks on Outlook for Economy

AUD

07:30pm ? RBA Monetary Policy Announcement poprz. 5.25% przewid. 5.25%

07.09.2004 (02:22am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.75) - SUPPORT 109.75, IF THIS REGION HOLD, THIS SHOULD LET US RISE TOWARDS 111.00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2082) - RESISTANCE 1.2085/1.2110, SUPPORT 1.2040. BECAUSE OF HOLIDAYS IN USA YESTERDAY IS PRACTICAL WITHOUT HISTORY. MARKET WAIT FOR GREENSPAN SPEACH.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2683) - SUPPORT AT 1.2660, RESISTANCE AT 1.2735. WE SHUOLD BREAK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTACNE TO HAVE POSIBILITY TO RISE ON THIS PAIR.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7836) - COURSE BELOW 1.7850 REGION WHAT CONFIRM SELL SIGNAL. THE NEAREST STRONG RESISTANCE IS AT 1.7930 REGION. COURSE SHOULD GO TOWARDS 1.7500 REGION.

[profi-forex]

Today`s data: (09.09.2004)

JPY

02:00am ? Machinery Orders m/m prev. -2.2% for. 3.9%

02:00am ? Machinery Orders prev. 10.4% for. 10.4%

03:00am ? Machine Tools Orders prev. 43.9%

07:50pm ? GDP q/q prev. 1.1% for. 0.6%

07:50pm ? GDP y/y prev. 1.7% for. 1.9%

07:50pm ? Domestic Consumer Goods Price Index m/m prev. 0.4% for. 0.2%

07:50pm ? Export Price Index m/m prev. 0.6%

07:50pm ? Import Price Index m/m prev. 0.0%

DEM

03:00am ? German CPI m/m prev. 0.3%

03:00am ? German CPI ? EU Harmonised m/m prev. 0.4%

03:00am ? German CPI y/y prev. 1.8%

03:00am ? German CPI ? EU Harmonised y/y prev. 2.0%

03:00am ? German Trade Balance prev. E14.7B for. E15.0B

03:00am ? German Current Account Balance prev. E8.2B for. E6.0B

EUR

04:00am ? ECB to Release September Monthly Report

GBP

04:30am ? Visible Trade Balance GBP/Mn prev. -4973M for. -4800M

04:30am ? Trade Balance Non EU25 GBP/Mn prev. -2640M for. -2400M

07:00am ? Bank of England Monetary Policy Announcement prev. 4.75% for. 4.75%

CAD

08:15am ? Housing Starts prev. 218.7K for. 226.5K

08:30am ? Capality Utylization Rate (Q2) prev. 83.5% for. 84.3%

08:30am ? New Housing Price Index m/m prev. 0.7% for. 0.5%

USD

08:30am ? Import Price Index m/m prev. 0.2% for. 0.6%

08:30am ? Initial Jobless Claims prev. 362K for. 346K

10:00am ? Wholesale Inventories prev. 1.1% for. 0.6%

08:00pm ? Fed Yellen Speaks on Economy Outlook

NZD

06:45pm ? Terms of Trade Index q/q prev. 2.1%

07.09.2004 (04:06am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109.65) - MARKET COULDN`T BREAK 110,20 NEITHER FALL BELOW 109,00 WHAT COULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD HAVE RANGE 109,00 - 110,00.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2086) - YESTERDAY`S GREENSPAN SPEACH (INVESTORS DIDN`T HEAR NOTHING NEW) CAUSE THAT INVESTORS RESOLVE HOLD SUPPORT AT 1,2000. REALIZED PROFITS + STOP ORDERS BROKE RESISTANCES AT 1,2075 AND 1,2125 WINDING UPCOURSE TOWARDS THE MOST SERIOUS RESISTANCE AT 1,2195. yESTERDAY`S CLOSE ABOVE 1,2140 COULD SUGGST COUNTINUATION RISES TOWARDS 1,2300.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1.2622) - YESTERDAY`S RISES TOWARDS 1,2785 WAS FALSE BUY SIGNAL. AFTER GREENSPAN SPEACH WE SAW BIG USD SELL OFF AND IN A FEW MINUTES USD FALL BY ABOUT 200 PIPS. TODAY WE SHOULD BE WITNESSES TEST 1,2500 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1.7865) - DISSAPOINTED GREENSPAN SPEACH CAUSE FORTIFY GBP BY ABOUT 200 PIPS. IF GBP/USD WILL BREAK 1,8040 WE COULD TALK ABOUT STRONG GBP.

[profi-forex]

Today`s data: (10.09.2004)

CHF

01:45am ? GDP q/q prev. 0.4% for. 0.5%

01:45am ? GDP y/y prev. 1.5% for. 2.0%

JPY

02:00am ? Consumer Confidence prev. 48.7 for. 48

02:00am? Bank of Japan Monthly Report

DEM

03:00am ? German Current Account Balance prev. E8.2B for. E6.0B

EUR

06:00am ? Euro-Zone OECD Leading Indicator prev. 106.3

CAD

08:15am ? Housing Starts prev. 218.7K for. 226.5K

08:30am ? Capality Utylization Rate (Q2) prev. 83.5% for. 84.3%

08:30am ? New Housing Price Index m/m prev. 0.7% for. 0.5%

USD

08:30am ? Producer Price Index m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am ? PPI EX Food and Energy m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.1%

08:30am ? PPI EX Food and Energy y/y prev. 1.7% for. 1.8%

08:30am ? Producer Price Index y/y prev. 4.0% for. 3.6%

08:30am ? Trade Balance prev. -$55.8B for. - $51.5B

09:30am ? Fed McTeer Speaks in Dallas

10:30am ? Fed Pianatlo Speaks on Economy

10.09.2004 (02:21am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,01) - WEAKER THAN EXPECTED JAPANESE DATA AND YESTERDAY`S ROSE BRENT PRICES CAUSED THAT NOW WE ARE TESTING 110,00 REGION. TODAY WE EXPECT ON US DATA (TRADE BALANCE) AND PROBABLY ON THIS DATA DEPEND NEXT DIRECTION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2229) - ALL DAY WE HAD RANGE 1,2160 - 1,2200. THE END OF THE DAY WAS VERY INTERSTING. WE BROKEN RESISTANCE AT 1,2215 AND TESTED 1,2240. IN THE END OF JAPANESE SESSION WE REACHED MAX ON 1,2255 REGION. THIS BEHAVIOUR THE MARKET MIGHT SUGGEST ATTACK 1,2400 REGION AND BREAKING COSOLIDATION 1,1990 - 1,2390 AT THE TOP. POSSIBLE WORST DATA FROM USA AND TOMMOROW`S ANNIVERSARY WTC ATTEMPT COULD HELP IN THIS.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2600) - MARKET SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2500 - 1,2640. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON TODAY`S US DATA.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7883) - HOLDING SUPPORT AT 1,7840 MIGHT SUUGGEST POSIBILITY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,7990/1,8040 REGION.

[profi-forex]

Today`s data: (13.09.2004)

DEM

02:00am ? Wholesales Price Index m/m prev. 0.2% for. 0.3%

02:00am ? Wholesales Price Index y/y prev. 3.9% for. 3.9%

GBP

04:30am ? PPI Input m/m prev. 0.6% for. 1.2%

04:30am ? PPI Input y/y prev. 3.0% for. 3.4%

04:30am ? PPI Output m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.3%

04:30am ? PPI Output y/y prev. 2.5% for. 2.6%

04:30am ? PPI Output (ex. FBTP) y/y prev. 1.6% for. 1.6%

04:30am ? ODPM UK House Prices y/y prev. 13.9% for. 14.0%

CAD

08:30am ? Labor Productivity q/q prev. 0.4% for. 0.6%

USD

02pm:00 ? Monthly Budget Statement prev. -$76B for. -$40B

13.09.2004 (04:25am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,01) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20/40. ONES MORE BULLS HOLD 109,00 REGION WHAT GIVE WEIGHT TO THIS REGION. CLOSE TODAY BELOW THIS REGION WILL BE STRONG SELL SIGNAL.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2263) - THE NEAREST RESISTANCE AT 1,2330/40, BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,2450. THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1,2200/1,2195. BUT FIRST WE COULD SEE FALL TO 1,2160 AND EVEN 1,2100, WHERE BULLS WOULD WANT HOLD THIS REGION. IT SEEMS LIKE FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE MIGHT BE IN PRICES NOW, INFLUENCE ON COURSE WOULD HAVE DATA PUBLSHED LATE THIS WEEK TOO.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2567) - IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2520 - 1,2680. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON US DATA AND SWISS BANK DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7960) - GBP TESTED ON FRIDAY VERY IMPORTANT RESISTANCE AT 1,8030/40 REGION. FROM THIS REGION WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 1,7900 BEFORE NEXT TEST ATTACK ABOVE-MENTIONED RESISTANCE. BREAKINGTHROUG THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 1,8080 - 1,8140, THE MOST IMPORTANT IN MIDDLE TERM.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (16.09.2004)

JPY

2:00am - Leading Economic Index prev. 66.7%

2:00am - Coincident Index prev. 77.8%

GBP

08:30am - Retail Sales m/m prev. -0.4% for. -0.3%

08:30am - Retail Sales y/y prev. 6.6% for. 5.7%

EUR

05:00am - EuroZone CPI m/m prev. -0.2% for. 0.2%

05:00am - EuroZone CPI y/y prev. 2.3% for. 2.3%

CHF

08:00am - Swiss National Bank Reports Monetary Policy Assessment prev. 0.5% for. 0.75%

USD

08:30am - Consumer Price Index m/m prev. -0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am - CPI Ex Food & Energy m/m prev. 0.1% for. 0.2%

08:30am - CPI Ex Food & Energy y/y prev. 1.8% for. 1.8%

08:30am - Consumer Price Index y/y prev. 3.0% for. 2.8%

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 319k for. 348k

09:00am - US Treasury International Capital Flow Data

12:00am - Philadelphia FED Survey prev. 28.5 for. 25

01:00pm - US Fed Gramlich Speaks On Oil and Monetary Policy


15.09.2004 (06:07am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,57) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20/40. ONES MORE BULLS HOLD 109,00 REGION WHAT GIVE WEIGHT TO THIS REGION. CLOSE TODAY BELOW THIS REGION WILL BE STRONG SELL SIGNAL.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2236) - DESPITE YESTERADAY`S VERY WEAK US DATA BULLS DON`T BREAK DURABLE 1,2300 REGION, THATS WHY WE DON`T EXCLUDE FALL TOWARDS 1,2100 REGION WHAT COULD BE CONNECED WITH SHOPPING USD AHEAD FED IN NEXT WEEK. THE NEAREST SUPPORT 1,2225 AND NEXT 1,2160/70.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2597) - IN A FEW DAYS WE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2520 - 1,2680. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON US DATA AND SWISS BANK DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE (ON THURSDAY)

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7868) - YESTERDAY FALSE BOUNCE ABOVE 1,8020 CAUSED THAT TRADERS MASS CLOSING LONG POSIOTIONS ON THIS PAIR. TODAY WE DON`T EXCLUDE TEST 1,7780 REGION, BREAKINGTHROUGH WILL OPEN THE WAY TO NEXT FALLS EVEN TOWARDS 1,7550 REGION.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (20.09.2004)

JPY

MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

GBP

04:30am - M4 Money Supply m/m prev. 1.0% for. 0.6%

04:30am - M4 Money Supply y/y prev. 8.8% for. 9.3%

04:30am - M4 SterlingLending (BP) prev. 15.2 for. 10.00

04:30am - CML, BBA & BSA Mortgage Lending Figures

04:30am - Public Finances prev. -6.80 for. 3.6

04:30am - Public Sector Net Borrowing prev. -1.0 for. 5.0

CAD

08:30am - Wholesale Sales prev. 0.6% for. 0.5%

EUR

12:00am - ECB Trichet and Weber Speak

12:30am - ECB Chief Economist Issing Speaks - The Euro

USD

01:00pm - NAHB Housing Market Index prev. 71 for. 70

01:00pm - US Treasury Secretary Snow Speaks at Natl Press Club

NZD

07:45pm - Visitor Arrivals prev. -0.2%

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


20.09.2004 (05:39am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,82) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20. IT SEEMS LIKE TUESDAY`S FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE COULD HELP BULLS IN BREAKUP FROM CONSOLIDATION. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2153) - THE FIRST SIGNS OF WEAKEN EUR WE HAD ON FRIDAY. THE PROOF WAS CLOSED BELOW 1,2185. THE CLOSE TODAY BELOW 1,2155 COULD SUGGEST ATTACK AT SUPPORT AT 1,200 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2718) - COURSE STILL STAY ABOVE 1,2640 WHAT MEAN THAT AVERAGE ON THIS MARKET STILL HAVE BULLS. IT SEEMS LIKE FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE COULD ONLY HELP THEM. WATCH REGIONS: 1,2780 AND 1,2840

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7864) - LAST WEEK`S BETTER THAN EXPECTED UK DATA POSTPONED TET 1,7550 REGION BUT ATTACK ON THIS REGION SEEMS TO BE ONLY THE MATTER OF TIME.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (22.09.2004)

GBP

04:30am - Bank of England minutes

EUR

04:30am - ECB President Trichet Testimony

05:00am - Industrial New Orders y/y prev. 10.9% for. 9.9%

05:00am - Industrial New Orders SA m/m prev. -6.5% for. 2.0%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Trade Balance prev. 8710M for. 11000M

USD

08:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. -2.0%

NZD

06:45am - Current Account Balance (2Q) prev. 0.174BK for. -1.256B

CHF

M0 Money Supply y/y prev. 2.2%


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


22.09.2004 (05:17am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,10) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 109,00 - 110,20. YESTERDAY`S FED DECISION ABOUT ROSE RATE COULD TODAY HELP USD IN BREAK-UP FROM COSOLIDATION. THE NEAREST RESISATCNES : 110,40 AND 110,70, BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGIONSWILL OPEN THE WAY TO RISE TOWARDS 112,00 REGION. IF WE DON`T BREAK WE COULD TEST LOWER BAND CONSOLIDATION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2297) - YESTERDAY CLOSED ABOVE 1,2300 SUUGEST POSIBILITY TO RISES TOWARDS 1,2500. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,2350 AND 1,2390.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2574) - BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1,2630 REGION WEAKED USD BY ABOVE 100 PIPS. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE TO BROKEN SUPPORT, WE THINK THAT USD WILL FALL TOWARDS 1,2460 AND EVEN TOWARDS 1,2370.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7936) - SUPPORTS: 1,7930 AND 1,7880. RESISTACNE 1,8015/30. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON BREAKING BEYOND THIS REGIONS.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (28.09.2004)

GBP

04:30am - Total Business Investment q/q prev. 1,9%/b>

04:30am - Total Business Investment y/y prev. 7,2%/b>

USD

10:00am - Consumer Confidence prev. 98,2 for. 100

07:30pm - Fed`s Bies speaks on accounting challenges

JPY

07:50pm - Large Retailers` Sales prev. -1,5% for. -2,6%

07:50pm - Retail Trade y/y prev. 0,8% for. -1,2%

07:50pm - Retail Trade m/m prev. 0,7% for. 0,2%


------------------------------------------------------------------------


28.09.2004 (05:27am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,48) - AS WE EXPECTED YESTERDAY BULLS TODAY TESTED 111,70 REGION, FROM THIS LEVEL WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 111,00/30. NEXT TARGET SHOULD BE 112,40/50 AND LATER EVEN 114,80/115,00 .

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2305) - WE STILL STAY IN CONSOLIDATION 1,2200 - 1,2350. OUR PROPOSE IS WATCHING THIS MARKET CAREFULLY AT THIS MOMENT.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2608) - YESTERDAY BULLS COULDN`T BREAK 1,2650/60 THATS WHY COURSE FALL BELOW 1,2600 FINDING SUPPORT AT 1,2570/80 REGION. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8127) - AS WE EXPECTED YESTERDAY GBP AFTER BREAKING DOWN TREND LINE TESTED TODAY 1,8130 REGION. BREAKINGTHROUGH THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,8150/80.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (29.09.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - GDP q/q prev. 0,7% for. 0.9%

04:30am - GDP y/y prev. 3,4% for. 3,7%

04:30am - Index of Distribution 3m/3m prev. 0,9%

04:30am - Index of Distribution 3m/y prev. 5,3%

04:30am - Current Account prev. -5,3B for. -5,5B

04:30am - M4 Money Supply m/m prev. 1,0%

04:30am - M4 Money Supply y/y prev. 8,8%

04:30am - M4 Sterling Lending prev. 15,2B

04:30am - Net Consumer Credit prev. 1,8B for. 1,9B

04:30am - Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings prev. 8,6B for. 8,0B

05:30am - GfK Consumer Confidence Survey prev. -5

06:00am - CBI Distributive Trades Report

CHF

05:30am - KOF Swiss Leading Indicator prev. 0,98 for. 1

EUR

06:30am - 13-City CPI (NIC w/tobac) m/m prev. 0,2% for. 0,2%

06:30am - 13-City CPI (NIC w/tobac) y/y prev. 2,3% for. 2,3%

USD

07:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. 1,8%

08:30am - GDP Annualized prev. 2,8% for. 3,0%

08:30am - Personal Consumption prev. 1,6%

08:30am - GDP Price Deflator prev. 3,2% for. 3,2%

CAD

08:30am - Industrial Product Price m/m prev. -0,4% for. 0,3%

08:30am - Raw Materials Price Index m/m prev. 0,9% for. 2,0%

NZD

09:00am - NBNZ Business Confidence prev. 14,9%

06:45pm - Building Permits prev. -35,0%

JPY

07:50pm - Industrial Production m/m prev. 0,0% for. 0,5%

07:50pm - Industrial Production y/y prev. 5,9% for. 8,8%


------------------------------------------------------------------------


29.09.2004 (02:33am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,04) - TODAY MORNING CORRECTION REACHED 110,90/111,00. NEXT STRONG SUPPORT IS 110,60/80. IN THIS REGION SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS USD. TRADERS ARE CONVICTED THAT HIGH BRENT PRICES WILL HAVE NEGATIVE INFLUENCE AT DATA IN JAPAN IN THIS WEEK.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2315) - BULLS STILL COULDN`T BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,2350/60. THE LONGER RESISTANCE ISN`T BREAK THE LARGER PROBABILITY BIG CORRECTION AND FALL BELOW 1,2200.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2594) - WE STILL HAVE RANGE: 1,2550 - 1,2650. NEXT DIRECTION DEPEND ON BREAKING THIS REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8096) - YESTRERDAY THIS PAIR TESTED 1,8150 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT FROM THIS REGION WE ARE WATCHING CORRECTION. THE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 1,8060/70. IF THIS SUPPORT WILL HOLD, WE CAN`T RULLED OUT RISES TOWARDS 1,8200 REGION. BREAKTHROUGH ABOVE-MENTIONED SUPPORT COULD CAUSE BACK TO 1,800 REGION. BUT TODAY`S DATA FROM UK, WHICH COULD BE BETTER THAN EXPECTED, SHOULD HELP BULLS TO TEST 1,8200 REGION.