FOREX COMMENTARY - OCTOBER

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (04.10.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - CIPS Construction Industry PMI prev. 55,8

04:30am - M0 Money Supply m/m prev. 0,1% for. 0,63%

04:30am - M0 Money Supply y/y prev. 5,1% for. 5,5%

EUR

05:00am - Euro-Zone PPI m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,4%

05:00am - Euro-Zone PPI y/y prev. 2,8% for. 3,0%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Retail Trade m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,1%

05:00am - Euro-Zone Retail Trade y/y prev. 1,1% for. 1,8%

05:20am - ECB Vari. Rate Refinance Auct. prev. 2,0%

USD

08:00am - US Fed`s Santomero speaks on Monetary Policy

08:30am - US Fed`s Bernanke speaks on cross-border banking

10:00am - Ractory Orders prev. 1,3% for. 0,1%

10:30am - US Fed`s Poole talks at Lincoln University

11:00am - US Fed`s Bies speaks on international fin risks

11:00am - US Fed`s Bies speaks about risk management


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04.10.2004 (07:58am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,99) - G7 MEETING ON WEEKEND HAD POSITIVE INFLUENCE ON USD, WHICH NOW IS TESTING 111,000 REGION. TEST 111,50 REGION COULD HAVE DECIDING INFLUENCE ON NEXT DIRECTION. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT BACKUP TOWARDS 110,00 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2305) - FRIDAY`S CLOSED ABOVE 1,2400 REGION SUGGESTED POSIBITY TO MORE RISES AND TEST 1,2500 REGION. BUT ON JAPANESE SESION BEARS TAKE CONTROL ON MARKET BREAKING SUPPORTS AT 1,2380, 1,2340/50 AND 1,2315/00. WATCH 1,2280/60 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2616) - UNEXPECTLY WE SAW TODAY RISES TOWARS 1,2600 REGION, WHICH CAUSED THAT BULLS TAKE INITIATIVE. TODAY`S CLOSE NEAR THIS REGION GIVE US POSIBILITY TO TEST 1,2650 AND NEXT 1,2700 REGIONS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7974) - AFTER BREAKINGTHROUGH SUPPORT AT 1,7925 WE TESTED NEXT AT 1,7850 REGION. IT SEEMS LIKE NEXT BEARS` TARGET WILL BE 1,7800 REGION.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (05.10.2004) (US TIME)

EUR

04:00am - PMI services prev. 54,5 for. 54,4

05:00am - Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate prev. 9,0% for. 9,0%

GBP

04:30am - Official Reserves prev. $416,0M

04:30am - PMI services prev. 56,9 for. 56,5

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index m/m prev. 0,07%

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index y/y prev. 0,63%

USD

10:00am - ISM Non-Manufacturing prev. 58,2 for. 59,0

10:30am - US Fed`s Greenspan speaks on banking in NY

01:00pm - US Fed`s McTeer speaks on US econ in Austin

06:30pm - ABC Consumer Confidence prev. -9,0

NZD

05:45pm - Trade Balance (Revised)

AUD

07:30pm - RBA Cash Target prev. 5,25% for. 5,25%

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05.10.2004 (01:30am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 110,88) - YESTERDAY MAX WAS AT 111,20 REGION. TODAY WE STILL WAIT FOR TEST 11,50/70 REGION, SUPPORT IS 110,50/70.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2270) - EUR FOUND SUPPORT AT 1,2250/70, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2200 AND EVEN 1,2130. BUT WE CAN`T RULLED OUT BOUNCE TOWARDS 1,2300/30.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2555) - YESTERDAY BULLS BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,2650 WITH MAX AT 1,2680. SUPPORTS: 1,2640/50 , 1,2620 AND 1,2590. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT TEST 1,2720/40 ERGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7854) - GBP FOUND SUPPORT AT 1,7820, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 1,7750 AND 1,7700. IN LONG TERM WE CAN`T RULLED OUT FALL TOWARDS 1,7450. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,7950.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (06.10.2004) (US TIME)

EUR

04:00 - Bloomberg Eurozone Retail PMI prev. 49,7

11:00 - ECB Weekly Fin. Statement - Balance prev. 885,81B

11:00 - ECB Weekly Currency Reserves prev. 171,3B

GBP

Bank of Englang`s Monetary Policy Committee Meets

04:30am - Industrial Production m/m prev. -0,3% for. 0,3%

04:30am - Industrial Production y/y prev. 0,1% for. 1,2%

04:30am - Manufacturing Production m/m prev. -0,2% for. 0,3%

04:30am - Manufacturing Production y/y prev. 0,9% for. 1,6%

08:30am - NIESR GDP Estimate prev. 0,7%

USD

07:00am - MBA Mortgage Applications prev. 4,9%

12:00am - US Fed`s Ferguson speaks on personal savings rate

01:00pm - US Fed`s Poole speaks to executives in Missouri

CAD

08:30am - Building Permits prev. -11,4% for. 2,0%

10:00am - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 64,6 przewid. 62

JPY

07:50pm - Official Reserve Assets prev. $828,0B

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06.10.2004 (02:16am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,10) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY THIS PAIR TESTED 111,40 REGION. NEXT BULLS` TARGET SHOULD BE 111,70 AND EVEN 112,00 REGION, IN THIS SCENARIO COULD HELP RISES BRENT PRICES. THE NEAREST SUPPORT AT 110,80/90.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2314) - AS WE EXPECT WE WERE WITNESSES BOUNCE TOWARDS 1,2330. UNTIL EUR DON`T BREAK ABOVE THIS REGION WE COULD TALK ABOUT MONDAY`S FALL CORRECTION. SUPPORT AT 1,2250/60, BREAKTHROUGH THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2200 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2617) - SUPPORT AT 1,2575, RESISTANCE AT 1,2630. THE CLOSE ABOVE THIS REGION SHOULD PUSH USD TOWARDS 1,2680 - 1,2720.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7837) - BULLS HOLD SUPPORT AT 1,7800/20. IF WE COULD SEE RISES ON THIS PAIR BULLS SHOULD BREAK 1,7860/90 REGION. TODAY WE EXPECT FALLS TOWARDS 1,7750 - 1,7700.

[profi-forex]

TODAY DATA: (07.10.2004) (US TIME)

JPY

01:00am - Leading Economic Index prev. 60,0% for. 72,2%

01:00am - Coincident Index prev. 80,0% for. 50,0%

GBP

07:00am - BOE Rate Decision prev. 4,75% for. 4,75%

EUR

07:45am - ECB Rate Decision prev. 2,0% for. 2,0%

USD

08:00am - US Fed`s Pianalto speaks on economic outlook

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 369K for. 353K

08:30am - Continuing Claims prev. 2873K

09:30am - US Fed`s Ferguson speaks at Cato Institute

12:00am - US Fed`s Guynn - Payments in Americas Conf.

01:00pm - US Fed`s Bernanke - Central Bank Communication

02:30pm - Greenspan opening remarks at St. Louis Conf.

03:00pm - Consumer Credit prev. $10,9B for. $5,9B

04:30pm - US Fed`s Mc Teer speaks on US econ in NY

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07.10.2004 (04:45am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 111,25) - YESTERDAY THIS PAIR COULDN`T CLOSE ABOVE 111,40, THATS WHY WE COULD BE WITNESSES CORRECTION TOWARDS 110,80. PROBABLY TOMMOROW AFTER DATA FROM USA (NFP) WE WOULD HAVE RELUTS.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2277) - YERTERDAY`S FALSE BROKE 1,2260 WHAT HELPED EUR IN BACK-UP TO 1,2320. UNTIL YESTERDAY`S DATA FROM USA (NFP) COUSE SHOULD STAY IN RANGE: 1,2320 - 1,2240.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2647) - AS WE EXPECT YESTERDAY WE TESTED 1,2680. FROM THIS REGION WE HAD CORRECTION TO 1,2630 AND EVEN 1,2600 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7777) - YESTERDAY BULLS COULDN`T HOLD 1,7815 REGION AND WE TESTED 1,7750. AFTER THIS WE SAW VERY FAST BOUNCE AND COURSE BACK TO BROKEN SUPPORT. TODAY WE DON`T EXLUDE TEST 1,7700 REGION.

[profi-forex]

TODAY`s DATA: (11.10.2004) (US TIME)

JPY - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

CAD - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

USD - MARKET IS CLOSE TODAY

GBP

04:30am - PPI Input s.a m/m prev. 1,6% for. 0,5%

04:30am - PPI Input s.a y/y prev. 4,8% for. 6,2%

04:30am - PPI Output n.s.a. m/m prev. 0,2% for. 0,2%

04:30am - PPI Output n.s.a. y/y prev. 2,6% for. 2,8%

04:30am - PPI Output s.a. (ex. FBTP) y/y prev. 2,1% for. 2,0%

04:30am - Visible Trade Balance prev. -5159.0 for. -5100.0

04:30am - Trade Balance Non EU25 prev. -2720M for. -2625M

04:30am - ODPM UK House Prices y/y prev. 14,3% for. -13,2%

01:00pm - BRC Reatil Sales Monitor prev. 0,6%

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11.10.2004 (04:14am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,30) - AFTER WORST THAN EXPECTED NFP DATA USD/JPY BROKEN SUPPORT AT 109,70/80 AND TESTED 109,30. NOW BULLS TRYING HOLD ABOVE 109,00. BREAK 109,00 WILL OPEN THE WAY TO TEST 108,75 AND THERE WE EXPECT LITTLE BOJ INTERVENTION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2402) - FRIDAY\'S CLOSE ABOVE 1,24 LEVEL SUGGEST POSSIBLY ATTACK 1,2440/60 REGION. SUPPORT AT 1,2380 IF WE BREAK THIS REGION WE EXPECT FALL TOWARDS 1,2200.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2508) - RESIST. AT 1,2515/35. WE EXPECT FALL TOWARDS 1,2370 IN A FEW DAYS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7945) - SUPPORT AT 1,7920 AND 1,7880. WE EXPECT TEST 1,8050 REGION SOON.

[profi-forex]

13.10.2004 (05:40am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,85) - BULLS HOLD REGION 109,00. NOW SUPPORT STILL IS 109,50/60 REGION. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 110,20 WHERE SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS JPY. IN THIS WEEK WE EXPECT BREAK SUPPORT AT 109,00 AND TEST 108,75 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2320) - AS WE SUGGESTED ON MONDAY PROBABLY WE HAD FALSE BREAK. YESTERDAY USD FORTFY TO 1,2285 REGION. IN THIS MOMENT WE HAVE BOUNCE. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 1,2550/75. IF BULLS ARE THINKING ABOUT SERIOUS RISES WE SHOULD END THIS WEEK AT 1,2460 REGION.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2549) - SUPPORT AT 1,2530/40. RESISTANCE 1,2580/1,2600. UNEXPECTLY BULLS TESTED YESTERDAY 1,2600. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT RISES EVEN TO 1,2650 REGION.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7912) - BULLS TESTED ONLY 1,8000 REGION AND YESTERDAY AFTER WHORST DATA FROM UK WE TESTED 1,7840 REGION. NOW WE HAVE BOUNCE, WHICH MAX SHOULD REACH 1,7920/50 REGION.

[profi-forex]

15.10.2004 (02:33am US TIME)


USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 109,51) - BULLS NEXT TIME HOLD SUPPORT AT 109,15/00. BUT THEY COULDN`T BREAK 109,75/110,10 REGION. NEXT DIREXTION DEPEND ON BREAK THIS RANGE. IF SUPPORT AT 109,15/00 WILL BE BROKEN, WE SHOULD SEE TEST 108,75/50 REGIN BUT IF RESSISTANCE AT 109,75/110,00 WILL BE BROKEN, WE SHOULD SEE TEST 110,20/40 REGION.

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2394) - YESTERDAY WE WERE WITNESSES UNSUCCESFUL TEST 1,2420 REGION. BULLS FIND SUPPORT AT 1,2365/70. LARGE INFLUENCE ON TODAY`S COURSES WOULD HAVE TODAY`S US DATA AND A.GREENSPAN SPEACH ABOUT INFLUENCE HIGH BRENT PRICES ON ECONOMY. ONLY WHEN EUR CLOSE ABOVE 1,2460/80 WE COULD SEE NEW TOPS.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2438) - STRONG SUPPORT AT 1,2400/25. BREAK THIS REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2350/70. WE CAN`T RULLED OUT TEST NEW MINIMUMS.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,7975) - ON DAILY CHART WE COULD FIND DOUBLE BOTTOM WHAT COULD SUGGEST RIRES TOWARDS 1,8200. VERY IMPORTANT FOR BULLS IS TO CLOSE ABOVE 1,8025/40 REGION.