may 27, friday trading plan

[mikefin5]

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May 26th Trading Log (Fri Trading Plan)


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arthur
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Joined: 14 May 2004
Posts: 5175

Posted: Thu May 26, 2005 4:56 pm Post subject: May 26th Trading Log (Fri Trading Plan)

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May 26th Trading Log (Fri Trading Plan):

I expected greater volatility. However, the volatility indices fell lower. VXN (Nasdaq 100 Volatility Index) fell to just over 14 1/2 and closed at 15, which are all-time lows. Low volatility makes it a tough trading market. QQQQ bounced to 38.27, which is major resistance, and closed at 38.19. Major support levels are 38, 37.60, and 37.25. QQQQ also created a gap this morning at 37.80. The Nasdaq TRIN short-term MAs, five, 10, and 20 day, all closed below 0.70, which indicate Nasdaq is severely overbought. The NYSE 10 day TRIN closed below 0.90, which is severely overbought. TICK is still on a sell signal, i.e. 100 unit MA below 200 unit MA, although the disparity between the MAs suggests a narrow trading range short-term. The CBOE Put/Call spiked down, which is typically bearish short-term. SPX closed the gap at 1,198, and there are open gaps at 1,174, 1,143, and 1,138, which may close this summer. I believe, QQQQ will be in a roughly 37 1/4 to 38 1/4 range over the next week. So, I plan to continue buying QQQQ puts near the top of the range, sell some on QQQQ dips, buy OEX calls near the bottom of that range, etc. I'm sure volatility will pick-up. The economic reports before and 15 minutes after the open should move the market. My QQQQ puts closed on upticks.

My portfolio is about $1,450,000 including about $440,000 in cash.

Calls Contracts

None

Puts Contracts

QQQQ Jun 38 2005 8,000
QQQQ Jul 38 2005 4,000
TLT Jun 94 2005 1,800
TLT Jun 95 2005 200
TLT Jun 96 2005 200
BBH Jun 165 2005 300
DNA Jun 75 2005 200

Portfolio at $500,000 on Jul 1st, 2003

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