I think it's important to note that last season there were around 10 wins that were a combination of unexpected production and unexpected defensive plays.

By unexpected I mean that they were plays that went above and beyond the call.

Ben Francisco had a couple of key home runs and extra base hits that won games. +2

Kelly Shoppach has some amazing defensive plays. One example that comes to mind is the amazing throw to third base that nailed Ryan Freel in the eighth inning. Ryan Freel was about to go into his slide before Shoppach even released the ball yet the throw went to the one spot in front of the third base bag that would get Freel. Freel complained so heavily about the call his manager was ejected. Freel never apologized for taking the light off of such a great play by both Shoppach and Blake (for handling the throw) and I lost respect for him for that.

Shoppach also blocked the plate on one or two occasions, at least once on a game ending tag up that would have tied the game.

There was a pick off of a runner leading too far off of second that was just a marvel to watch. Shoppach also had the third highest slugging percentage on the team and a couple of his homers were difference makers as well.

Shoppach, +4.

Franklin Gutierrez was involved in a couple of 1-0 wins in which Franklin either hit the only home run in the game, or made a game saving catch. At least one catch in an extra inning game in which he slammed against the wall and made the catch. A runner was on second and if the ball had not been caught the game would have been over. I think it was Detroit we were playing and we ended up winning that game.

Franklin's arm has cut down a runner or two and prevented runners from going first to third automatically.
Franklin, +5

Vic Martinez. Vic was solid behind the plate and his foot to block the plate in some game ending situations and also made some terrific throws as well. I call these "above and beyond" Vic's normally solid play. Vic +3 over what is normally expected of Vic the All Star.

Grady Sizemore would probably just be off the charts, since he does this year in and year out, I don't know that I can give him any additional points this past year, but without Grady in center, we probably lose 7 additional games.

so, adding it all up, I get 14 games that in the coming year we could easily lose without there being that much of a drop off in either effort, talent or situation.

So we could literally be 82-80 this upcoming year and have everyone put up similar numbers. Scary stuff.

By the way, honorable mention should go to Jason Michaels probably saved at least two games, one early in the season on a crazy flopping fly ball with the bases loaded in the final inning and the Indians clinging to a close lead, and his baserunning probably helped us win a game somewhere along the way, and Shin Soo Choo probably saved one game with his heroic throw in the first inning with the bases loaded and nobody out (well the catch would have been the first out) that nailed a runner at the plate and preserved the inning with no runs scoring. I think Byrd was pitching and Byrd credited that play with being the difference maker.

Add those three in and suddenly we could have been 79-83 and I haven't even mentioned ACAB!