Jacks @ Sonoma (1/2 @ 3:00)
A successful start was one of the keys to the 2010-11 season for the Humboldt State Men?s Basketball. The Lumberjacks have gotten off to a fast start and they look to complete their three game road trip with a 3-0 record before they spend most of January and the early part of February back on their home court at Lumberjack Arena. Standing in their way are the Sonoma State Seawolves. The tip off for this game is at 3:00 PM from The Wolves Den in Rohnert Park. The broadcast of the game will follow the completion of the Women?s Basketball game between Humboldt State and Sonoma State on ESPN Radio 1340 AM and it will be broadcasted on the Internet at Humboldt State University Athletics. Dan Pambianco will be on the call from courtside.
Humboldt State comes into the contest with a 5-1 record in the CCAA and 8-1 overall. The Lumberjacks defeated Cal State East Bay on Thursday afternoon by the final score of 91-69. The Lumberjacks built a double digit lead in the first half, but a tightly called first half and hot shooting by the Pioneers kept the game close. In the second half, Humboldt State was the more aggressive as they got to the line 24 times as Cal State East Bay was whistled for 16 fouls to 2 fouls for the Lumberjacks. In the end, it would be a 22 point victory for the Green and Gold.
Let?s go inside the numbers from this game.
Humboldt State:
Team: 47.3% FG %, 38.9% 3 PT FG %, 82.1% FT %, 33 rebounds, + 8 rebounding margin, 14 assists, 15 turnovers, 9 steals, 1 block
Individual Leaders:
Brian Morris: 23 points, 12 rebounds, 4 assists.
Ernie Spada: 4 for 6 from the three point line, 16 points
Brandon Sperling and Randy Hunter: 14 points each
Cal State East Bay:
Team: 52.1% FG %, 35.7% 3 PT FG %, 77.8% FT %, 25 rebounds, - 8 rebounding margin, 15 assists, 26 turnovers, 6 steals, 2 blocks.
Individual Leaders:
Will Freedman: 16 points, 4 rebounds
Mark Samuels: 11 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists
George Toyama: 11 points, 2 assists
When I look at the numbers from this game, it left me scratching my head. I am wondering how in the world did Cal State East Bay stayed in the game in the first half with 19 turnovers and trailed by four at halftime. I think the answer is that the Pioneers had some hot shooting in the first half and they got to the line 16 times in the first half. If Cal State East Bay did not shoot over 50% in the first half, then the Pioneers would have been down by at least 15 at halftime.
In the second half, after Cal State East Bay scored the first five points to open the half, Humboldt State just attacked at will in the low blocks and got to the line 24 times. I really felt that Cal State East Bay would have no answer for Brian Morris and I was right. Morris had a big game and it helped as the Lumberjacks pulled away late in the second half. It was also nice to see Ernie Spada get on track in this game. Spada has been struggling all season as his shots were not falling. This is a game that could regain the confidence for the senior from Lake Oswego, Oregon.
Overall, this was a good win despite the fact that the Lumberjacks allowed their opponent to shoot over 50% from the field. I felt the discipline by Humboldt State was a key in the second half as they committed two fouls in the entire half. It kept the Pioneers off the line and that prevented any comeback attempts when the lead grew to double digits. I feel there are a couple of adjustments that can be made on defense, but I don?t see teams shooting over 50% every night against Humboldt State.
Let?s look at the Sonoma State Seawolves.
Sonoma State comes into the contest with a 2-3 record in the CCAA and 4-5 overall. Since the first meeting back on December 11th, which Humboldt State won by the final score of 96-82, Sonoma State got a win over Cal State East Bay before the Christmas break. Then, on Thursday night, the Seawolves felt to the UC San Diego Tritons at RIMAC Arena by the final score of 73-64.
As a reminder, when we look at the Seawolves, this is a team that does not take a lot of bad shots. Sonoma State is shooting 48.4% from the field coming into the contest. However, opponents are making shots, too at a 46.7% clip from the field. It creates a lot of excitement, but it could be nerve wrecking for Head Coach Pat Fuscaldo. The Seawolves are not tall, but they are unselfish with the ball as Sonoma State is averaging 15.7 assists per game. I expect this game to be competitive down in Rohnert Park.
Let?s go inside the numbers.
Humboldt State:
Team: 82.6 points per game, 46.4% FG %, 35.5% 3 PT FG %, 76.8% FT %, 36.2 rebounds per game, 13.6 assists per game, 14.2 turnovers per game, 8.8 steals per game, 3.3 blocks per game
Opponents: 68.0 points per game, 45.7% FG %, 32.0% 3 PT FG %, 72.1% FT %, 29.7 rebounds per game, 12.3 assists per game, 19.6 turnovers per game, 5.0 steals per game, 2.6 blocks per game
Players to Watch:
Brian Morris: 16.2 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game, 54.6% FG %
Randy Hunter: 15.8 points per game, 6.6 rebounds per game, 59.8% FG %
Brandon Sperling: 14.9 points per game, 4.3 rebounds per game, 2.4 assists per game
Sonoma State:
Team: 74.4 points per game, 48.4% FG %, 33.8% 3 PT FG %, 76.0% FT %, 31.1 rebounds per game, 15.7 assists per game, 13.8 turnovers per game, 5.8 steals per game, 1.9 blocks per game
Opponents: 72.8 points per game, 46.7% FG %, 30.9% 3 PT FG %, 73.3% FT %, 31.9 rebounds per game, 12.8 assists per game, 13.8 turnovers per game, 5.7 steals per game, 2.8 blocks per game
Players to Watch:
Ben Washington: 11.7 points per game, 2.4 rebounds per game, 50.0% FG %
James Sandoval: 10.8 points per game, 4.8 rebounds per game, 55.2% FG %
Sterling Arterberry: 10.3 points per game, 4.3 rebounds per game, 3.0 assists per game.
Here are the Keys to the Game.
1. Attack the low block. In the first meeting, I felt Sonoma State had no answers for defending the paint against Humboldt State. The end result was that the Lumberjacks got 40 points in the paint. Granted, Sonoma State got 36 points in the loss, but I don?t see the Seawolves containing both Randy Hunter and Brian Morris in this game.
2. Tempo. I have a feeling that Coach Fuscaldo is going to try to slow the game down in this second meeting. I thought when Sonoma State tried to run with Humboldt State, it was a bad move on the Seawolves? part. It played right into the Lumberjacks game and it proved to be too much for the Seawolves to battle back in the game. If Humboldt State is to win this game, expect the tempo to be fast and furious throughout.
3. Give the Seawolves hard looks at the basket. Sonoma State can hit the open jumper. It is shown in their field goal percentage this season. I think Humboldt State needs to find a way to give Sonoma State hard looks at the baskets. This will lead to low percentage shots which should be rebounded by the defensive team. If Humboldt State plays good fundamental team defense in this game, I think the Lumberjacks will win this game.
Here are the predictions.
Score: Humboldt State 78, Sonoma State 65
Scorer: Morris 22
Rebounder: Morris 11
Assists: Sperling 4
Steals: Clark 2
Blocks: Morris 1
Turnovers: 12
FG%: 49%
3 PT FG %: 36%
FT %: 78%
Rebounding Margin: Humboldt + 5
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