For the past month, there has been a lot of talk about Humboldt State and Cal State Dominguez Hills as they were at the top of the CCAA standings. Both teams have shown that they will be a force in the CCAA and in the West Region. Now, the #20 ranked Lumberjacks and the # 5 ranked Toros will square off for the first time this season with the first round of this battle will take place in the Torodome. The tip off for this huge showdown is tentatively scheduled for 7:30 PM with the Pre Game Show schedule to start following the completion of the Women?s Basketball game. Dan Pambianco will provide the accounts of the game from Carson.
Humboldt State comes into the contest with a 10-1 record in the CCAA and 14-1 record overall. The Lumberjacks were able to pull away late in the second half against Cal State Los Angeles to hold on for a 57-51 road win at the Eagle?s Nest. Humboldt State was without the services of Brandon Sperling for most of the contest as he was dealing with an ankle injury that was sustained last weekend against San Francisco State. However, the rest of the team would step up in his absence to hold off a feisty Golden Eagles squad.
Let?s go inside the numbers for this game.
Humboldt State:
Team: 39.3% FG %, 31.6% 3 PT FG %, 53.8% FT %, 40 rebounds, - 2 rebounding margin, 8 assists, 10 turnovers, 3 steals, 2 blocks
Individual Leaders:
Brian Morris: 9 for 14 from the field, 20 points, 10 rebounds
Randy Hunter: 14 points, 8 rebounds
Kyle Baxter: 12 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists
Cal State Los Angeles:
Team: 32.8% FG %, 35.3% 3 PT FG %, 41.7% FT %, 42 rebounds, + 2 rebounding margin, 10 assists, 11 turnovers, 7 steals, 4 blocks
Individual Leaders:
David Norris: 14 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists
Carl Hoffman: 11 points, 7 rebounds, 2 blocks
Chris Robinson: 10 points, 11 rebounds
When I look at this game, it was an evenly match game between two of the top teams in the CCAA. I felt one of the keys to the win was the ability that Humboldt State was able to hang around in the first half as Brian Morris, Randy Hunter, and Kyle Baxter scored all of the first half points for the Lumberjacks. When Elliot Babcock-Krenk was able to find his shot in the second half, it took some of the pressure off of Morris, Hunter, and Baxter. The contribution from Babcock-Krenk was the key to get Humboldt State over the hump.
It also helped that Cal State Los Angeles went 1 for 7 from the free throw line in the second half. I mentioned in the Keys that free throw shooting would be a factor in the game and it was a big factor in the second half for the Golden Eagles. If they hit a couple of free throws, I think this game could have come down to a final possession.
This is a good win for Humboldt State. Now, the big test stands before the Lumberjacks as the top spot in the CCAA and possibly in the West Region will be on the line in the Torodome. The first regional rankings come out on Wednesday so this game will have a huge impact on the race for the # 1 seed in the West.
Let?s look at the Cal State Dominguez Hills Toros.
Cal State Dominguez Hills, who is ranked # 5 in the nation in the latest NABC poll (it is their highest ranking in the national poll since 1981), comes into the contest with an identical 10-1 record in the CCAA and 14-1 overall. The Toros defeated Sonoma State at home on Friday night by the final score of 84-72. Cal State Dominguez Hills was able to build a 19 point second half lead before Seawolves came back to within 8 in the final minutes before the Toros locked up the 12 point win.
When I look at the Toros, they are a veteran team with 8 players back from last year?s team and they are hungry to bring some success to the school in the south part of Los Angeles. Cal State Dominguez Hills is a big, deep team that is quick and athletic on both ends of the court.
If you thought Cal State Los Angeles would be a challenge on the defensive end of the court, then Cal State Dominguez Hills would be the equivalent of going from the frying pan to the fire. The Toros came into this game as the # 3 ranked team in the nation in scoring defense as they hold their opponents to 56.5 points per game. Cal State Dominguez Hills forces their opponents to take bad shots as they have the # 1 field goal defense in the country as the opposition shoots 35.6% from the field this season. The Toros also have a little more scoring capability than the Golden Eagles. When you add it together, there are a few experts who think that Cal State Dominguez Hills could be the best team from the West Region in many years. This has the making of a great game in Carson.
Let?s go inside the numbers. Please note, these numbers are before the games that took place this weekend.
Humboldt State:
Team: 82.2 points per game, 47.9% FG %, 34.8% 3 PT FG %, 77.3% FT %, 35.9 rebounds per game, 14.1 assists per game, 13.4 turnovers per game, 7.5 steals per game, 2.6 blocks per game
Opponents: 68.3 points per game, 45.6% FG %, 33.8% 3 PT FG %, 68.9% FT %, 29.1 rebounds per game, 12.5 assists per game, 16.9 turnovers per game, 4.9 steals per game, 2.0 blocks per game
Players to Watch:
Brian Morris: 19.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 58.5% FG %
Randy Hunter: 15.4 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 55.2% FG %
Brandon Sperling: 13.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.4 apg
Cal State Dominguez Hills:
Team: 66.6 points per game, 45.9% FG %, 37.9% 3 PT FG %, 71.0% FT %, 38.9 rebounds per game, 11.2 assists per game, 15.7 turnovers per game, 6.5 steals per game, 3.4 blocks per game
Opponents: 56.5 points per game, 35.6% FG %, 29.1% 3 PT FG %, 68.6% FT %, 30.1 rebounds per game, 10.6 assists per game, 15.5 turnovers per game, 7.5 steals per game, 1.9 blocks per game
Players to Watch:
Michael Cox: 11.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 56.7% FG %
Marcquintice Davis: 11.4 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 4.4 apg
Zareh Zargayan: 11.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg
Here are the Keys to the Game.
1. Balance scoring throughout the team. When I look back at the win over Cal State Los Angeles, I saw that five players for Humboldt State scored in the game. It may work against the Golden Eagles, but against a deeper and talented Cal State Dominguez Hills team, it could be big trouble for Humboldt State. I feel the Lumberjacks need to get around seven players in the scoring column in order to win this game.
2. Brian Morris vs. Michael Cox. This will be an interesting match up to watch throughout the game. I feel these two players will be in the hunt for both CCAA Player of the Year and West Region Player of the Year. Cox played last weekend to get some rhythm back into his game and in the game against Sonoma State, he started and scored 12 points in the win. Morris has been playing well as of late, but an injury in practice has the coaching staff for the Lumberjack concern. Morris was able to be productive against the Golden Eagles. I feel the player who has the better night between these two stars will help their team in getting the win.
3. Shot selection. Looking at the numbers from the lone loss by the Toros this season, the Coyotes forced Cal State Dominguez Hills to take tough shots especially in the second half. The Toros were 1 for 14 from the three point line in that game. I think it will be important for Humboldt State to make Cal State Dominguez Hills take low percentage shots and to limit the Toros to one shot per possession. I have a feeling this will be another defensive battle and if Humboldt State can show that they are willing to bring it on the defensive end of the court, then I think the Lumberjacks will have a shot to win this game.
Here is the prediction.
Score: Humboldt State 64, Cal State Dominguez Hills 61
Scorer: Morris 22
Rebounder: Morris 11
Assists: Baxter 4
Steals: Broome 1
Blocks: Hunter 1
Turnovers: 12
FG %: 39%
3 PT FG %: 35%
FT %: 79%
Rebounding Margin: Even
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