Draft Lottery Discussion Thread

**TuringComplete** · April 13th, 2005, 12:12 AM

Okay, as promised, I am reopening this issue. It hardly seems necessary for a discussion thread since the various issues have been debated ad nauseum, but we'll follow the order that has been set out:

Proposed: That instead of the standard method of choosing draft order based solely on record, we incorporate a draft lottery system. The system I'm suggesting would be as follows:
<ul type="square">[*]The lottery would begin this season.[*]All teams that did not make the playoff would be included in the lottery.[*]The top five draft picks would be obtained through the lottery.[*]The probability progression would start with the worst team having a 20% chance of getting the first pick and the probabilities would drop exponentially from there.[*]I have a program that will generate a number of possible orderings based on the probabilities given above. An online dice server would be used to select which ordering will be the actual one for this season.[/list]Okay, now to save a little time: I'm aware that some people are opposed to a lottery so I'll object to this proposal now to save you the trouble.

I object

This issue will now have to go to a vote.

Second, I suspect that most of the arguments for and against a lottery have been made, so what I'd like to focus on in this thread are the specific variables that people who are in favor of a lottery want to see in the final vote -- for example, is a 20% chance of the worst team getting first pick too low? That means that you'd only expect the team with the worst record to get the top pick once every five years. Most likely if they don't get that they'll still get a 2 or 3 pick, but no matter how unlucky they are, they will still pick no later than 6th.

Of course that could change too. Is 5 picks too many to include in the lottery? Too few? Should all 16 non-playoff teams be included in the lottery? Do you need more explanation of how exactly the mechanics of the lottery would be done? Should we wait until next year?

So, consider this kind of a pre-vote. If you're voting in favor of a lottery, please post your opinion on how you think it should be done and any "deal-breakers" for you. If you're voting against the lottery you're welcome to post your opinions here too, but please be civil since it is an official discussion thread. Everyone should also keep in mind that most people probably have their minds made up whether they're for or against a draft lottery (If you're on the fence, please post here and let us know.) so most pro/anti arguments are unlikely to change people's minds.

**kidpreacher** · April 13th, 2005, 12:22 AM

What is the NBA's lottery %number is it over or under 20? I think a lottery would be great, but was wondering do we get to see the results as they happen or will it just be posted afterwards. What are the percentages for each team in the lottery? How does it go down, does the 2nd team get 15 percent?

**GrendelKhan** · April 13th, 2005, 12:32 AM

I oppose a lottery. Especially any vote now that Draft position has already started. Maybe a discussion for next season though, But I really don't see a valid vote for the next draft coming from this season, since we are already under way.

[ April 12, 2005 09:43 PM: Message edited by: GrendelKhan ]

**TuringComplete** · April 13th, 2005, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by kidpreacher:
What is the NBA's lottery %number is it over or under 20? I think a lottery would be great, but was wondering do we get to see the results as they happen or will it just be posted afterwards. What are the percentages for each team in the lottery? How does it go down, does the 2nd team get 15 percent?

Here's a good writeup on the NBA draft lottery and its history.

To answer your questions: The worst team in the NBA has a 25% chance of getting the first pick. 2nd worst has a 20% chance, 3rd has 15.7% and so on. The NBA has 13 teams in the lottery (14 now with Charlotte? That would also change the percentages.) and only the first 3 picks are decided by the lottery.

Here's the way it would work. After the end of the regular season (since I need to see tied records) I would use the probabilities to generate 1000 draft orders. These could be viewed by any interested parties. I would then use the dice server to generate a verifiable random number between 1 and 1000. This number would choose which of the 1000 orderings we would use for this year's draft. The order would then be posted to the forum.

Of course it doesn't have to be this complex, but I think this "arm's length" approach would make the results more acceptable. I suppose it would be possible to have a "live" selection in chat for those who are interested.

As far as the actual percentages, think of the following numbers as "ping pong balls in a hopper." So the probability is for getting the first pick only. After one team gets the first draft pick, the rest of their "ping pong balls" are ignored so everyone else's probability changes depending on who got the first pick.

These numbers show the chance of each team to get the first pick if the worst team has a 20% chance.

20%
16%
13%
10%
8%
7%
5%
4%
4%
3%
2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%

Obviously there are a lot of rounding errors there. The chance does decrease for each team, but this should give you the general idea.

**TuringComplete** · April 13th, 2005, 01:58 AM

Originally posted by GrendelKhan:
I oppose a lottery. Especially any vote now that Draft position has already started. Maybe a discussion for next season though, But I really don't see a valid vote for the next draft coming from this season, since we are already under way.

I figured this objection would surface, but honestly I don't really see the point. If people aren't tanking then having a draft lottery won't change that. If people are already tanking then having a draft lottery can only cut down on their incentive to keep doing it.

I really only see one owner not necessarily voting his true preference based on his current position.

Here are the reactions people should have based on their current standing.
<ul type="square">[*]Worst team: I can only move down. I don't want a lottery this year.[*]Teams 2-8: I can either move up or down. The lottery may either help or hurt. I'll vote based on my true preferences.[*]Teams 9-16: If we have a lottery, I might get a top pick, but the chances are so low that it's not worth voting for a lottery if I don't really want one.[*]Teams 17-32: I won't be in the lottery this year, so I may as well vote for what I really want.[/list]So, GK, only one person has a rational reason to change their vote based on their current position -- and that's assuming that they hold onto it for the rest of the season. Plus, he'd be switching his vote to your side, so why should you object?

**dono** · April 13th, 2005, 11:48 AM

Okay, because I'm lazy and have only been in the league a couple of weeks, what was the original vote to begin the season? Shouldn't that remain as gospel, at least for this season?

**kidpreacher** · April 13th, 2005, 04:04 PM

Those are ridiculous percentages, HJ, The NBA ones are much better. We could increase the top 10 without decreasing the lower group, but I am not for it. I think a lottery would definitely help prevent tanking. because there is a chance you won't get the first pick.

**TuringComplete** · April 13th, 2005, 04:50 PM

Originally posted by dono:
Okay, because I'm lazy and have only been in the league a couple of weeks, what was the original vote to begin the season? Shouldn't that remain as gospel, at least for this season?

The short answer is that no decision was ever made. The long answer follows:

Fasttracker wanted a draft lottery from day one. He posted this on November 3rd, last year.

We had various discussions about the issue, and then Andy posted a vote thread which devolved into an argument. At that point we didn't have a real process in place for handling decisions and votes, and there was no enforceable time limit. Since neither side got 17 votes, the vote just fizzled out undecided.

Now we have a procedure in place for making decisions so this issue can be resolved.

If you'd like it to start next season instead of this one, then post that here and if there's enough support, I'll write the vote that way.

**TuringComplete** · April 13th, 2005, 05:16 PM

Originally posted by hornetjohn:
However, I think that we should adapt a better chance for the lowest teams to get it. I say only include the worst ten.

We can have as many teams as we decide in the lottery, that's no problem. I'd say that the bottom 16 makes a better division because it makes a "smoother distribution of rewards." What I mean by that is even an 8th seed team is guaranteed income from 2 away playoff games and 1 home playoff game. If you're on the cusp, would you rather have that, or a less than 1% chance at a top 5 pick? Some people would debate that either way, but at least there is something to both sides.

Suppose, on the other hand that we limit the lottery to the worst 10 teams. If you're the 11th worst team would you rather have nothing or a 2% chance at a top 5 pick? Since there's nothing for you on the other side, there's a big incentive to try to get into the lottery. After all, you're not giving anything up.

[set of numbers]
Would that work to have percentages of points?

Sure. Any set of probabilities that add to 100 will work. Probably the better way is to use an exponential function based on what you want the starting probability to be.
Here is a chart of probabilites I made up with the worst team having a 25% chance of getting the first pick. The numbers in the top row are the initial percentages (the chances of getting the first pick.) The rest of the table has the chances of getting a later pick (although this table is based on just the first 4 picks going in the lottery).

So, if you read down the 1 column. The worst team has a 25% chance of getting the first pick, a 21% chance of getting the 2nd pick, and so on.

If you scroll down that thread there is also a table of probabilities if the worst team has a 33% chance of getting the first pick.

**hornetjohn** · April 13th, 2005, 05:41 PM

Nice work TC

I change my mind on the ten teams - agree that could cause issues. And I like the percentages at 25 more,but 20 would work for me too

[ April 13, 2005 02:44 PM: Message edited by: hornetjohn ]

Thread: Draft Lottery Discussion Thread

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