I think we should have a lottery for the top3 picks.
<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">Yes, exactly. 16 teams in the lottery, but only x number of picks are drawn randomly. After that everyone just falls into place. If you think all 16 picks should be done randomly, then you'd answer 16 to this question.Originally posted by Stumps:
1. TC, did you mean how many PICKS rather than TEAMS to have drawn by the lottery?
Since I haven't seen any serious contenders for an alternative to an exponential progression, I just want to find out what chance the worst team should have. If I were expressing my preferences, I'd post:
5 picks chosen by lottery.
Worst team has a 20% chance of getting the #1 pick.
By getting more responses of this nature I can make the vote reflect the overall consensus of what people want in the lottery.
Since there may still be some confusion, let my try to explain what the NBA does with their draft lottery. 13 teams get "ping pong balls" based on the rank of their overall record. The worst team gets 25% of all the ping pong balls, the second worst team gets less, and so on. When numbers are drawn, only 3 picks are chosen randomly.
So if you're the 13th worst team in the NBA and your number isn't drawn for one of the top three picks, you will get pick 13. There is no way for you to pick anywhere between 4 and 12. If your ball is drawn first you get pick 1. If it's drawn second, you get pick 2. If it's drawn third, you get pick 3. If you weren't drawn at all you get pick 13. There are no other alternatives. Does that make sense?
Another example: If you're the team with the worst record and you have really bad luck, the worst you can do is still pick 4th. You will always have a pick between 1 and 4. Since only 3 picks are drawn randomly, if you don't get one of those, you fall into the next slot.
Okay, quiz time: In the NBA system, what is the range of picks that the team with the 6th worst team can have?
Answer: Since the first three picks are chosen at random, the sixth worst team could have any one of those. If teams ahead of 6th get the top 3 picks, then that just shuffles the teams with lower numbers, so the 6th team would actually pick 6th. Also, teams with better records could get the top 3 picks which would push the 6th team down. Suppose teams 10, 11, 12 ended up with picks 1, 2, 3. That would mean that team 1 would get pick 4 and everyone else would slide down, so in this case 6 would drop to 9. To sum up, the 6th worst team in the NBA could possibly end up with these picks: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9. There is no scenario which would net them any other pick.
So, when you're making your choice for number of picks to have in the lottery, keep in mind that you're choosing the number of teams that can jump ahead and also the distance that teams can fall. If all 16 picks are chosen by lottery, then it is possible (if very unlikely) for the worst team to get 16th pick.
I think we should have a lottery for the top3 picks.
NO lottery.....oh wait...this is not a vote
[img]smile.gif[/img]
I say top ten picks are up for lottery with no team able to fall more than 3 spots
For years, I did a basketball sim (board game, the stats, the paperwork, yowza!). We had done a weighted lottery and it would go like this for 16 teams...
Worst record = 16 chits
2nd worst record = 15 chits
3rd worst record = 14 chits
and so on until
3rd best record not in playoffs = 3 chits
2nd best record " " " = 2 chits
Best record not in playoffs = 1 chit.
Select the #1 pick, put the chit back in.
Select the #2 pick, put it back in (if it is the same team, repick).
Then do the third.
No messy percentages. It's weighted, but slightly so.
If you are going to do a lottery but weight it heavily for the worst team, why not just leave it as is? Doing a lotto the way outlined above, it gives pretty good chances for the worst 8 teams.
For the record, I'm not for a lotto.
Question: Is even doing a lottery feasable within the framework of the game? Or is this going to be, once again, heavy Scott help on it.
<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">It will probably have to be honor system. Scott's not going to want to rearrange the draft order for us. I suppose he might, but we'd be better off handling it ourselves.Originally posted by dono:
Question: Is even doing a lottery feasable within the framework of the game? Or is this going to be, once again, heavy Scott help on it.
The lottery would work well with GK's idea to have a "live" draft on the board, where everyone makes their picks on the board and then sets their draft list appropriately to have the game put the right player on their teams.
Yes, that does require all the owners to do the right thing when submitting their bids, and yes, there are likely to be some problems as there were with the guaranteed contracts rule and such.
Awesome Idea, GK. I live the idea of a live running draft thread - with a joint discussion thread - we could start it during the second round of the playoffs - and work our way through it.
Dude, I really like that idea.
Okay, we've had the discussion up for about 4 days. Here's the current proposal reflecting the consensus (as best as I can determine.) I'll leave this open for another day to see if anyone has any serious issues, still wants to contribute their opinion, or otherwise lobby for a different vote.
Proposed: That instead of the standard method of choosing draft order based solely on record, we incorporate a draft lottery system. The system I'm suggesting would be as follows:
</font><ul type="square">[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">The lottery would begin next season. (we would have this year's draft under the regular system)</font>[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">All teams that did not make the playoff would be included in the lottery.</font>[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">The top four draft picks would be obtained through the lottery.</font>[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">The probability progression would start with the worst team having a 20% chance of getting the first pick and the probabilities would drop exponentially from there.</font>[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">I have a program that will generate a number of possible orderings based on the probabilities given above. An online dice server would be used to select which ordering will be the actual one for this season.</font>[*]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">After the end of the regular season, I will generate the draft order. Then at the end of the first round of the playoffs, the draft will be done on the forums following the rules set up for the original draft.</font>[/list]<font size="3" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">Since I didn't see anyone object the the method of doing the draft (and we'd have to do something like that anyway) I added it to the proposed vote.
Why only four?
Posting Permissions
Bookmarks