What we thought we "knew" and what we know now by Mark Schlabach

They Aren't Who We Thought

A quarter of the 2009 college football season is in the rearview mirror for most teams, and conference play is beginning to take center stage across the country.

What did we learn during the first three weeks of the season? That what we thought we knew over the summer wasn't exactly true.

Florida and Texas still seem worthy of their lofty rankings, but neither team looked unbeatable in its first three games. Notre Dame and Southern California aren't as good as we thought they'd be, and Michigan and the Big East aren't nearly as bad as we believed.

On the Mark breaks down the myths and truths of the first quarter of the season:

What we thought we knew: Defending BCS national champion Florida was the team to beat again.
What we learned: The Gators are actually pretty vulnerable.



After blasting FCS foe Charleston Southern 62-3 and Troy 56-6, the Gators were supposed to steamroll Tennessee in Saturday's SEC opener at the Swamp. Instead, Florida looked rather ordinary in its 23-13 victory.

Quarterback Tim Tebow turned the ball over twice, and the Gators couldn't generate much offense against Tennessee's stingy defense. The Gators still seem to be relying too much on Tebow, who ran 24 times against the Volunteers (15 more carries than any other Florida player). After three weeks of the season, it's pretty evident that the Gators really miss departed receivers Percy Harvin and Louis Murphy -- and former offensive coordinator Dan Mullen -- and still lack an every-down running back.

The No. 1 Gators face four more potential land mines: at No. 7 LSU on Oct. 10, against No. 21 Georgia in Jacksonville, Fla., on Oct. 31, against No. 18 Florida State at home on Nov. 28 and potentially a date in the SEC championship game in Atlanta.

What we thought we knew: There would be a memorable Heisman Trophy race between three quarterbacks.
What we learned: The Heisman Trophy race is wide open.

With the last two Heisman winners -- Tebow and Oklahoma's Sam Bradford -- returning to school, it was supposed to be a three-way race among those two and Texas quarterback Colt McCoy.

McCoy and Tebow still seem to be the front-runners, but neither has done anything spectacular to date. Bradford sprained his shoulder in Oklahoma's stunning 14-13 loss to BYU in the opener and hasn't played since. Bradford isn't expected back in the Sooners' lineup for at least a couple more weeks.

California running back Jahvid Best and quarterbacks Jacory Harris of Miami and Case Keenum of Houston also have emerged as strong Heisman candidates.

What we thought we knew: There are at least three potential BCS busters.
What we know: There are still three left, but it's not exactly who we expected.


Jason O. Watson/US Presswire

Boise State is still running toward a BCS berth.

Boise State, BYU and Utah were considered potential BCS busters entering the season, but only one of them is still standing after three weeks. Boise State beat Oregon 19-8 in its opener and defeated Fresno State 51-34 on the road Friday night. The No. 8 Broncos will be heavily favored in each of their last nine regular-season games, including an Oct. 14 road trip to Tulsa, which on paper appears to be its toughest game.

BYU climbed as high as No. 7 after beating Oklahoma, but it fell on its face in an ugly 54-28 loss to Florida State on Saturday. Utah, which stunned Alabama 31-17 in the 2009 Sugar Bowl, saw its 16-game winning streak end in a 31-24 loss at Oregon.

Who could join Boise State as potential BCS busters? Houston, Southern Mississippi and TCU. The Horned Frogs play at Clemson on Saturday, which could help their national reputation.

What we thought we knew: Southern California simply reloads its roster.
What we know: Even the Trojans have to rebuild every once in a while.



Even after losing 11 players to the NFL draft, including three first-rounders, the Trojans were still the favorite to win at least a share of their eighth consecutive Pac-10 championship. Never mind that USC lost quarterback Mark Sanchez, the fifth pick in the draft, and linebackers Brian Cushing, Clay Matthews and Rey Maualuga.

The Trojans recruit so well, they simply reload their roster, right? Wrong. Even before USC was stunned by Washington 16-13 on Saturday, it was evident that the Trojans had some deficiencies. The USC offense was rather mediocre before its game-winning drive in an 18-15 victory at Ohio State on Sept. 12. Quarterback Matt Barkley was calm and confident in a big stadium on the road, but he's still a freshman. And the Trojans still don't seem to have many playmakers besides Joe McKnight.

Here's the really scary part for USC coach Pete Carroll: After hosting Washington State on Saturday, the Trojans play four of their next five games on the road (at No. 6 California, at Notre Dame, at Oregon and at Arizona State). The Oct. 24 home game is against Oregon State, which beat USC last season.

What we thought we knew: Notre Dame is back.
What we know: The Fighting Irish aren't there yet.



After three games, it's pretty clear that Charlie Weis has upgraded Notre Dame's talent. But the Fighting Irish lost to Michigan 38-34 in their second game and nearly fell to Michigan State before holding on for a 33-30 victory Saturday.

Now Notre Dame has to play the rest of the season without its best player, wide receiver Michael Floyd, who broke his collarbone against the Spartans. Notre Dame's soft schedule doesn't seem so fluffy now, either. After playing at Purdue on Saturday, the Irish face consecutive home games against ranked opponents: No. 24 Washington and No. 12 Southern California. The three-game stretch to close the season looks more daunting, too: at Pittsburgh, home against Connecticut and at Stanford.

What we thought we knew: Rich Rod was in trouble.
What we know: Rich Rod could run for governor (in Michigan, not West Virginia).


Remember all the accusations about improper practices and failed condo deals? It seems like ancient history after the Wolverines opened the season by winning their first three games, including the victory over Notre Dame.

Michigan fans could only hope the Wolverines would be better after last season's 3-9 disaster, and so far Rich Rodriguez has delivered. Tate Forcier looks like a quarterback tailor-made for Rodriguez's spread offense, and the Wolverines are better on defense. They play only two ranked opponents the rest of the way and get both of them at home: No. 5 Penn State on Oct. 24 and No. 13 Ohio State in the Nov. 21 regular-season finale.

But Michigan is still a young football team and plays four potentially difficult road games: Michigan State, Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin.

What we thought we knew: Oklahoma State was ready to join the Big 12 elite.
What we know: The Cowboys still aren't as good as Oklahoma and Texas.

The Cowboys appeared ready to challenge the Longhorns and Sooners after their 24-10 victory over Georgia in the Sept. 5 opener. But the Pokes came crashing down to earth only a week later, losing to Houston 45-35 at home.

Oklahoma State's defense still looks pretty suspect, allowing 512 yards of offense in the loss to Houston and 377 yards in last week's 41-24 victory over lowly Rice. Quarterback Zac Robinson hasn't been especially sharp (58.9 percent accuracy), and tailback Kendall Hunter has been slowed by a leg injury.

The Cowboys will have to get better before they host No. 2 Texas on Oct. 31.

What we thought we knew: Alabama had too much to replace.
What we know: The Crimson Tide might be the best team in the country.


Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Greg McElroy has stepped right in at QB for the Crimson Tide.

After losing its last two games in 2008, Alabama entered this season with plenty of concerns. The Crimson Tide lost three starting offensive linemen, including All-America left tackle Andre Smith, along with quarterback John Parker Wilson and leading rusher Glen Coffee.

But through three games, the Crimson Tide look like the team to beat in the SEC West. Quarterback Greg McElroy has been fantastic, and Alabama has four tailbacks -- Mark Ingram, Trent Richardson, Roy Upchurch and Terry Grant -- who would start for a lot of teams. The offensive line has held up pretty well, and Alabama's defense might be the best in the country.

Alabama also has the easiest road among the SEC West contenders. It plays at No. 4 Ole Miss on Oct. 10, but gets No. 7 LSU at home Nov. 7. The Tide do not play Florida or Georgia, the two best teams in the SEC East.

What we thought we knew: The Big East would be terrible.
What we know: It's really not that bad.


Has there been a bigger surprise than defending Big East champion Cincinnati? The Bearcats blasted Rutgers 47-15 on the road to start the season and then beat Oregon State 28-18 on the road Saturday. Senior quarterback Tony Pike is completing 70.8 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and two interceptions, and Cincinnati's revamped defense is allowing only 12 points per game.

Preseason favorite Pittsburgh and South Florida are off to 3-0 starts, although the Bulls will have to play the rest of the season without star quarterback Matt Grothe, who suffered a torn ACL in his knee. Connecticut was impressive in its 30-22 win at Baylor on Saturday, and the Huskies nearly beat North Carolina before losing, 12-10.

What we thought we knew: The Mountain West would be BCS-worthy.
What we know: The MWC is good, but let's not get carried away.

The MWC cheers could be heard loud and clear after BYU upset Oklahoma, Colorado State beat Colorado and TCU won at Virginia. But the MWC missed golden opportunities for national respect the last two weeks. Air Force lost at Minnesota, 20-13, followed by deflating losses for BYU and Utah last weekend.