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Ok, who let those 27 people in here? [img]graemlins/hmmm.gif[/img]
Maybe we should build a fence to keep them out [img]eek.gif[/img]
City shrinking? Not really
Census agrees city didn't lose population
BY DAN KLEPAL AND GREGORY KORTE | ENQUIRER STAFF WRITERS
Forget everything you heard about the shrinking Cincinnati. Forget everything you heard about it losing population faster than any major U.S. city.
In a stunning reversal of previous estimates, the U.S. Census Bureau will post new estimates today that have the city gaining population this decade - by 27 residents.
The new population estimate for Cincinnati is 331,310, replacing the July estimate of 308,728. The revision is the result of a challenge by city officials who said the July numbers undercounted new housing units.
Cincinnati joins Columbus as the only big cities in Ohio estimated to have gained population between 2000 and 2005.
Cincinnati is now the 56th largest city in the country - up from 58th - and has jumped over Pittsburgh and Tampa.
The new number will have a significant impact on things such as the amount of federal money the city gets for Community Development Block Grants, in computing of per-capita crime statistics, in evaluating the health and vibrancy of neighborhoods and even on the way people around the region view the city.
"The biggest impact will be on the perception that Cincinnati is decaying. It obviously is not," Cincinnati Mayor Mark Mallory said. "There are a lot of people that form their opinion about the entire city based purely on population. The thought is if it's decreasing there is something wrong, crime is out of control, taxes are too high, on and on and on.
"If population is increasing, people think you must be doing something right."
Rollin Stanley knows that's true.
Stanley is the planning director in St. Louis, a city that has successfully challenged census estimates three years running, gaining more than 31,000 people in that time. St. Louis now routinely files its challenge the day Census estimates are released. His department tracks building permits, demolition orders and conversion permits - documents that allow buildings that served as warehouses or retail space to be turned into housing - specifically for the challenges.
"Damn right there's an impact," Stanley said of census underestimations. "What happens, the numbers come out and the newspaper publishes reports of doom and gloom. Every newspaper is writing that Cincinnati, Cleveland and St. Louis are the biggest population losers, and it's bull. It really hurts, and makes it difficult to market the city."
ESTIMATES BETWEEN COUNTS
The Census Bureau tries to count every person every 10 years.
In between, it issues annual population estimates for states, counties and municipalities. It makes those estimates on 19,000 places, and gets about 30 challenges a year.
State and county estimates are based on birth and death rates and migration patterns gleaned from tax returns. Then, to estimate population changes within counties, the Census Bureau looks primarily at building permits and the age of the housing stock to estimate population growth and decline.
The Census Bureau started allowing challenges to its annual estimates in 2001. The bureau provides a worksheet, or checklist, of information it might consider in the challenge. Then it's up to the city to provide documentation.
Dev Saggar, a planner in the city's Department of Community Development and Planning, had exactly one week before the Oct. 1 deadline to pull all the information together. He filed the document on the day of the deadline, at 5 p.m.
Saggar, like Mallory, knew the challenge would be successful but never dreamed of gaining more than 22,000 people.
"We knew the number of development projects in the city, the housing stock was fairly stable, we don't have people leaving in an exodus," Saggar said. "We don't have much of that, so I thought we would be successful. We still have quite a lot of stability and pride in our neighborhoods."
The Census Bureau officials notified Cincinnati officials last week that the challenge was accepted. The Census estimate in July had Cincinnati losing 6.8 percent of its population, the biggest decline of any city, just slightly ahead of Detroit as the nation's biggest loser.
Now the city's population change is a 0.008 percent increase, the smallest of the 183 cities with population gains.
Still, it's the smallest gain of the 183 cities that had population gains, so we should be allright. WHEW!
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And we are #18 on this list.
This one might not be too good though.
http://www.morganquitno.com/cit07pop.htm#25
Give it up for St Louis, 2 titles in one week.
World Series and now most dangerous [img]eek.gif[/img]
Beating Detroit twice !?!?!?!?!?
Was that the plan all along? [img]graemlins/hmmm.gif[/img] [img]graemlins/sure.gif[/img]
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I think St Louis got this "distinction" because of all the New Orleans refugees from Katrina who found their way into the city last year. How else explain the sudden upswing in their violent crime in one year, out of the blue?
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Might be the proximatey of the Brewery LOL! (just kidding)
Apparently this isnt a huge jump, they were up near the top before.
