Lottery probabilites

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v2...babilities.jpg

This data comes from creating a draft where the worst team has a 25% chance of getting first pick and running it one billion times. The teams are across the top, and the picks are down the side. So if you look at column 3, row 2, then you'll see that the third worst team has a 14.36% chance of getting the 2nd pick.

Hopefully with data to go on we can have a more productive discussion. In fact looking at it has made me reconsider certain things -- for instance, the worst team has a 23.34% chance of getting 5th pick, which means it would happen about once every 4 or 5 seasons. It might be better to have some sort of requirement that no team may drop more than 2 or 3 places in the draft. Just a thought.

perhaps increasing the percentage chance they have of winning the draft or even just increasing the gap over the second and third worst teams would fix that problem

You cant have a lottery and say the best you can do is move up or down 3 spots it would be like trading, and saying you cabt trade a 15th pick for an 8th.

As a lottery you have to accept the results of it

Thanks TC - those numbers really help in picturing what the outcome would be.

I think the Horseman is right, increasing the % chance of getting the top pick should make it look better. Ideally you wouldn't want anyone to have a significant chance of dropping more than, say, 4 places?

EDIT: Apologies TC, your numbers are correct [img]redface.gif[/img]
<font color="#000002"><font size="1">[ January 20, 2005 08:06 PM: Message edited by: Leonidas ]</font></font>

<font color="#000002" size="1">[ January 20, 2005 09:11 PM: Message edited by: Leonidas ]</font>

I think it looks great. But maybe only a 25% chance for the worst team is a bit low. What it is in the NBA lottery?
dicky

If only 4 or 5 teams have a chance at the lottery picks, then yes, 25% is way too low.

The NBA uses 25%,

http://www.nba.com/history/draft_evolution.html
Scroll to the bottom for the recent rules...

You would think the worst team having less then a 50% chance of "wining" the lottery woudl be a bit too extreme. and droping more then a place or two really is a bit of a climb.

The worst team will get robbed eventualy - that is what the Lottery is designed to do, so why not make it as painless as possible when you push this through?


-- BTW, thanks for the research TC.

Quote:

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Originally posted by King Z-ster:
If only 4 or 5 teams have a chance at the lottery picks, then yes, 25% is way too low.

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<font size="2" face="Sylfaen, Verdana, Helvetica">16 teams have a chance at the lottery picks.

This table really helps to understand what you are talking about.
I think it should be more than 25% chance. Can you run it with 33%?
Since the NBA has 13 teams in lottery and we seem to be heading for 16 teams, how are you adjusting the tables for that?
Is the level of complexity added justified for the possible result? While there is an occassional standout, usually the first 4 or 5 picks are reasonably strong. I was picking no 4 in my first draft and got what I believe was the best player in the draft (and Leo sure did not hesitate to buy him from the newbie with a decent player in return).
While putting in something like the NBA is nice, I am of the opinion that the amount of complexity added will not add much to the game and will increase the chance of someone feeling like that got screwed.