Early week snowstorm potential

The long range models are still onboard, and have been pretty consistent for a while, with bringing a major snowstorm to parts of the eastern U.S. early next week, including this area, mainly for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame. IF, again if, some of the recent runs were to verify this storm could hammer this area with a significant snowfall...and by significant I don't mean just a few inches and more closer to and possibly in the "feet" category. It all comes down to the phasing and track as usual. If the system tracks up the eastern slopes of the Apps, that would the bring the highest chance for high totals in this region (and most likely a wet snow), a track farther east/south and out to sea would lessen those. As most know, storm tracks up the eastern slopes have historically been the big snow produces for this area. We're still several days away and things could easily change, and probably will at least at little. Its likely the storm could get suppressed to far to the south/east and bring little snow, BUT its something be aware and be ready to prepared just in case.

Would it be starting early on tuesday or into that night going into wednesday morning? Or do we not know yet?

According to the Kentucky Weather Center they are predicting the low to travel closer to the mountains and upwards to a foot or more of snow for the area.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by R13

Would it be starting early on tuesday or into that night going into wednesday morning? Or do we not know yet?

---

Probably the worst more toward Tuesday evening and on, but still early to say much, and even then we may see some rain and snow starting as early as Monday. I'd say they'll be a little more confident Sunday as to the track.

I know beamer, I want to really get excited about this storm but the GFS is spoiling my fun right now with only a 6 inches but Im going with the NAM and a bigger storm....

00z NAM dumps over a foot in the region. 00z GFS has trended a little farther west, but brings in a little warmer air at the onset, however with these types of storms dynamic cooling could be at play...so, who knows there, depends on how quick the changeover is. 12z runs tomorrow will be interesting, if its on most model runs and looking likely for a big hit then one begins to take it more seriously.

Please don't go running around, at least right now, saying its going to snow 1-2 feet (or even 1 inch for that matter) though, lol. This could be anywhere from a 1-3 incher to a "shut down" type storm, nothing even close to being set yet. Don't do something like that when no one is saying anything about definitive amounts yet, still too early for anything like that.

+1 to what beamer says folks, I cant wait untill tom. and the new model runs esp. the GFS 12z and the NAM. I know for a fact that either him or I will tell everyone what the models say, untill then log on to kyweathercenter.com for the latest. I know it says ky weather but Chris does a GREAT job for evern our region with his maps and expanations.

I hate snow

So what's the verdict, when will it hit?

Wise county has already put schools on a snow schedule for tomorrow in anticipation of the "snow event".

The "big snow" isn't expected to hit until Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty though. Look around at weather.com, accuweather, wcyb, etc and they all say different things. Kentucky weather center is still saying potential for 12"+, but everyone else seems to think it won't do much. I'd say it will be sometime tomorrow before they can give a real good estimate.

Still awaiting to how things trend through tomorrow, especially once it gets in the 48 hr window, due to differences in track still yet. Its like Chris says in his blog, its the American models (which are the farthest east) vs. the non-American (which are over farther west). The American ones (GFS and NAM) may trend back west though, the GFS is very well known for that.

By the way, still a little light snow/flurries expected to move through early tomorrow also.

*00z GFS run for tonight continues the westward trend, also places the western precip shield right over us with a good deal of moisture associated.

Unfortunately, regarding this storm, IF there is some significant accumulations, it appears its going to be another heavy wet snow. Keep that in mind also.

The GFS is starting to come around to a more western track than in previous runs. I would just like to see what the Mets are going to call for the accumulations 24hrs. out from the start. The low is starting to form in the NGOM and you can starting tracking it for its intesity and track. This is going to get intersting!

Also look for Winter Storm Watches to go up later this evening.

I suppose the beautiful weather and sun today is what they call the calm before the storm?

I remember the blizzard of 93 starting almost exactly the same way. It was like 60 degrees the day before and pouring rain. Then, later that night, it turned to one hell of a snowstorm. If memory serves me correctly, we had like 27 inches at the house. Then came the bitter cold.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by centennialdawg

I remember the blizzard of 93 starting almost exactly the same way. It was like 60 degrees the day before and pouring rain. Then, later that night, it turned to one hell of a snowstorm. If memory serves me correctly, we had like 27 inches at the house. Then came the bitter cold.

---

yeah, I planted trees the day before the storm. 2 day later I couldn't see them. They had already missed on a couple big snows and I figured they'd miss on another one.

I have been following some weather blogs and mot Mets. are saying it is going to go more westward with a lot of moisture. A big wet snow bring heavy weight for power lines and trees. I am afraid we are in the preliminary stages of the snowstorm that hit last year in December.

This is one complicated and interesting storm with a decent mix of differing forecasts. NWS in Morristown saying they're not confident enough to put up watches yet and only believe the highest elevations may reach warning criteria...in the statement they give totals from a general 2-5 with up to 6 possible in the higher elevations. Now just go to our west just a little to the Jackson NWS and they are going with a general 4-10 inch range and have posted Winter Storm Watches out for all of eastern KY. The Weather Channel keeps trying to pain the heaviest axis over this area too. And Chris' thinking is the areas in the highest risk category he has (which includes this area) are likely to see over 6 inches. Not sure what WJHL is going with but WCYB says 1/2 inch to 3 possible in the lower elevations and 2-6 in the higher with some locally heavier amounts mainly across the highest terrain. So, still some uncertainty. And this is all the current thinking, most likely to change, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of these expected totals to go up. It looks like though that rain could cut into the totals overall. If this storm does nudge west and strengthens more when it turns up, heavier rain and the intensifying low could help with dynamic cooling and a rapid changeover to the heavy wet snow. NWS and others right now thinking rain begins to mix with and change to snow at the higher elevations Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and then late Wednesday morning in the lower elevations as the storm begins to intensify on Wednesday.

Most sticking with lower end amounts. Morristown now has a winter storm watch posted for the area. They say a general 2-5, with over 6 possible in highest elevations. Not really anything much more than what we can typically see if theirs holds true.

Watch info:
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

What's the update on our areas forcast now?

Local Severe Weather Alert for Norton, VA (24273)

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW ..WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * TIMING: RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS: A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WARING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. * IMPACTS: SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE ENOUGH INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING TO CREATE HAZARDOUS ROADS. SECONDARY AND BACK ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SNOW AND ICE COVERED BY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IN ADDITION...SNOWFALL INTENSITIES WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. TRAVEL IS DISCOURAGED. IF TRAVEL IS UNAVOIDABLE...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY

u beat me too it!!!!

my iPhone weather app keeps me on track :D

I should take back what I said this morning, it was early, haha, but just wanted to put a reminder that while the amounts don't seem overwhelming (at least for now), the main concerns are for the greater possibility of more than what they expect but also mainly due to the nature of the snow. Its that quick changeover causing it to the heavy wet type and when you get 5-6 and more inches of that, then it becomes a bigger issue for downed trees and power lines. Its not like the previous damaging snow was all that great either, it was the type of snow and how it came that created the problems. We might escape that scenario this time, or maybe not, either way I just didn't want anyone to think that there would no threat of that.

Although 6" of snow in itself isn't too horrible, I dont want the heavy snow. I like having electricity.

On one side, all the downed trees that landed on power lines from Dec 09 were cleared away. On the other side other trees were weakened during that storm...

If people do have some good hardwood that falls during this storm, I might be interested.

Where's the snow?

Still coming down here in Coeburn, but not sticking or amounting to much of anything.

One complicated storm system, so little difference in track and such can drastically change things so much, but that's forecasting and the nature of this stuff. I have to say, the NWS earlier in the morning did have concerns that the low would speed up and exit the region quicker lessening the totals and that was part of the problem, along iwth the northern low being a little too far north and west and it slowed down some iin the beginning I believe which helped bring a little warmer air northward. But hey, who's complaining? Look just to our east...that happened to us not too long back, I don't believe anyone wanted a repeat and we were close. Wise was sitting at 36 for a long while, take that down just a bit and it wouldn't have been good. Those concerns regarding the wet nature of the snow also were certainly very real as you could see in the higher elevations. And yet again, people still around saying they were calling for a foot of snow when they weren't, lol.