2002 Tribe draft picks from PD

From the PD jan. 20;
The draft:

Although the order could change slightly, it appears the Indians will have seven of the first 94 picks in the June draft.

They'll draft 22nd in the first round, followed by compensation picks between the first and second round for losing free-agent Juan Gonzalez to Texas and failing to sign No. 1 pick Alan Horne from last year's draft. In the second round, they have their normal pick and receive a compensation pick between the second and third rounds for losing free-agent Marty Cordova to Baltimore.

In the third round, they have Texas' pick as compensation for Gonzalez and their own third-round pick.

"This draft is much deeper in high school position players than last year's," said John Mirabelli, Indians scouting director.
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Looks like we get a raw deal with Gonzo signing with Texas. If the Mets had signed Juan we would have received their first round pick (#17 overall). Because Texas is drafting in the first 15 picks (those are never given as compensation) we should get their 2nd round pick + 1st round sandwich pick. But it looks like the Dodgers will get Texas 2nd round pick for Chan Ho Park (must have had a higher Elias rating) and the Tribe is dropped down to Texas' 3rd round pick.
Still, looks like the opportunity for another productive draft to stock the farm system. 2001 looked pretty good, pressure is on Mirabelli to do it again.

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[This message has been edited by *TR (edited January 21, 2002).]

Shapiro and Mirabelli are on the same page, They both agree that the way to go is with HS pitching unlike Hart's Philosophy of drafting Hitters: David Miller and Danny Peoples, both Stiffs. It is refreshing to know we have a GM that undertstands that u can only win with pitching.

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I don't like that word that you "only" win with pitching. No WS champ recently have really been hitless wonders. And you may only win with pitching but it doesn't seem to be with pitching you developed. Both the Yankees and even-more-so the D'Backs have depended on pitchers signed as free agents or traded for. Nothing is more unpredictable long term than HS pitchers. A better organization to emulate might be the A's who emphasize college pitchers and HS hitters.

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[This message has been edited by *TR (edited January 20, 2002).]

The 96 Yankees won with the 9th best offense in the league, the 85 Royals were next to last in the AL in scoring. The point is if you have pitching you can go a long way. Hart never figured that out but Shapiro has.

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The 1996 Yankees were 2ND in the AL in team batting (.288). It would be misleading to claim they were the ninth best offense. They were 9th in runs scored. All that really shows was their inefficiency in the regular season and the potential they had to be better in the post-season. No team that was 2ND in the league in team batting are hitless wonders!
As for the '85 Royals, they might as well be the 1906 Cubs for all the relevancy they have to today's game.
If there is a common thread to recent WS winners it is pitchers signed as free agents and pitchers acquired via trade.
And all recent WS winners could hit!

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[This message has been edited by *TR (edited January 20, 2002).]

The point is that a middle of the road offense can win with good pitching. The 85 Royals are not the antiquaited team that you believe, History proves that good pitching can win with mediocre offense. John Hart never figured this out, his philosophy of five and fly starters-a good pen and great hitting wins nuthing significant.

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INteresting...that Elias thought Park was worth more compared to Gonzo in comparing the stats. Guess it really helped to pitch in Chavez Ravine. Yah it really blows the Tribe got such a low pick for Gonzo. Oh well.

Intriguing that they said it was deep in HS position players...looks like we are going to see a bunch of OFs and 1B drafted by the Tribe and hope that 50% of them turn out to be the real deal.

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Too early to tell if shapiro gets it. Just because we have young pitching in place that Hart helped bring here. I'm sick of people saying that Hart's way didn't work. The guy got us to two world series. I guess the other 24 major league teams that haven't won the world series in the past 10 years don't get it either. I think Shapiro can be good, but we'll see. SRG, how can you praise a guy who's major mark right now is a questionable deal. I think we have some good young pitching, but they are unproven, for the past three years the White Sox supposedly have had some pitching studs, none of them have really made the turn. I like the direction of pitching, but you need some key hitters, which is something we seem to be lacking. I'll give shapiro a couple of years to see the direction he takes.

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viper

The Indians draft will be like this #22, #35, #43, #65, #75, #86, #98

The Mets' first round pick was unattainable.

I think Mirabelli's drafts have been pretty mediocre, to be quite honest. The 2000 draft was just average. Corey Smith is not a very good prospect (very iffy), Tallet is somewhat decent and those Folsom/Swedlow characters...what the hell were the Indians thinking? Adam Cox was also a terrible pick.

This 2001 draft could really blow up in our faces. What is the success rate (making the majors) of a high school 1st round draft pick? About 30%? And the Indians spend 4.5 million dollars and the majority of their picks on teenaged pitching? All of these guys, Denham/Martin/Dittler/Foley, they all could get hurt and NEVER see the majors. It's likely two of them will never make it.

Let's face it, the 2000 draft was just average...nothing special. The 2001 draft has potential, I'd rate it a B/B+ on the scholastic scale, but these guys are MILES away from helping the major league club. Shapiro is a fool for taking all of those high school pitchers. He could be out of a job by the the time those guys see their rookie seasons.

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Adam Cox and Derek Thompson were both injured, how can you say Cox was a terrible pick? Rashad Eldridge has had injury problems as well as Brudda Foo Choy. Jonathon VanEverry has numerous tools, Folsom and Swedlow were reaches I admit but calling Corey Smith an average pick shows your ignorance as well, i hope all our drafts blow up like the 2001. You still have time to delete your stupid post.

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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by srg:
Shapiro and Mirabelli are on the same page, They both agree that the way to go is with HS pitching unlike Hart's Philosophy of drafting Hitters: David Miller and Danny Peoples, both Stiffs. It is refreshing to know we have a GM that undertstands that u can only win with pitching.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
That's true, except our system is loaded with pitching prospects and very few position prospects. I personally believe you go with the best player available, regardless of what position he plays. If the best player available is a 3B man, I don't care if you have a dozen good 3b prospects, you draft him. Ditto pitching.


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I think if you remember, in the 2000 draft, there were not that many high picks because of all the FA signings that year. (IE Alomar). So that is a big reason why it was not considered "good".

Hey Carolina, so who do you think the Tribe should have picked in 2001 instead? Or are you just against picking HS pitchers? If you look at the current crop of top of the line starters, who are the ones that came out in HS or came at in college? ANY prospect can get hurt, that argument is not really logical.

When the draft began, the Tribe front office recognized the dearth of position talent, however, they also realized that the draft was pitching deep versus position players and they said outright, they were going to draft the best player available and not worry about need. I think that the reason is simple, Top of the line starters are a total commodity and something that is very difficult to obtain on the open market later on, however, offense is represented by many different position players so a dearth in a bunch of positions can be alleviated by having depth in another or signing FAs.

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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Hawaii007:
If you look at the current crop of top of the line starters, who are the ones that came out in HS or came at in college? ANY prospect can get hurt, that argument is not really logical.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
My favorite starters developed in a farm system would be Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. All were drafted out of college. Carolina Blue is correct on 1st round high school pitchers. The overall track record is not good. High school pitchers are high-risk high-reward propositions. And there are over 25 years of past drafts that bear that out.

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ps to Carolina Blue- I do not think your draft postion numbers are all correct. The 7th pick the Tribe makes should be #94 overall.
Also the Tribe would have received the Mets 1st round pick (#17 overall) had Gonzalez signed with the Mets.




[This message has been edited by *TR (edited January 21, 2002).]

HUdson Mulder and Zito are good players but like I said, the Tribe is looking for high yield pitchers now instead of going the "safe" route. They realize that "safe" pitchers are readily available in the FA market etc. which is why they want to get that holy grail in the draft, probably the only place they can get it because they can't outbid the Yanks for them as FAs.

Were there a lot of high end college pitchers in 2001? I am sure they wouldn't have minded taking college pitchers if they had the chance. High school pitchers may be risky due to them primarily being "projects" that is agreeable, but I have to trust that they scouted everyone readily and knew who were the best.

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[This message has been edited by Hawaii007 (edited January 20, 2002).]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by srg:
The 96 Yankees won with the 9th best offense in the league, the 85 Royals were next to last in the AL in scoring. The point is if you have pitching you can go a long way. Hart never figured that out but Shapiro has.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Uh, can we put this delusional statement to rest.

Since 1995, The American League has been represented in the World Series by the Yankees 5 times and the Indians 2 times.

What about the other 12 teams in the league, Zilcho, nada.

And it wasn't a lack of pitching that did us in, it was the high rate of pitching injuries that zapped us along the way.





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Alex

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by *TR:

Quote:

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Originally posted by Hawaii007:
If you look at the current crop of top of the line starters, who are the ones that came out in HS or came at in college? ANY prospect can get hurt, that argument is not really logical.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
My favorite starters developed in a farm system would be Hudson, Mulder, and Zito. All were drafted out of college. Carolina Blue is correct on 1st round high school pitchers. The overall track record is not good. High school pitchers are high-risk high-reward propositions. And there are over 25 years of past drafts that bear that out.

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The Indians track record is pretty good with first round HS pitchers making it to the Big Leagues and rather quickly. Wright-Drew-Sabathia made it to the majors before they would have finished their college careers. I think college pitchers are as much of a risk if not more than a HS pitcher with the many innings they accumulate in college. Texas and LSU are were notorious for abusing pitchers, Greg Swindell would start one game and relieve the next, Mike Poehle a first rounder in 1985 from UT was another example of overuse, his arm was shot when he was drafted by Cleveland. Darron Kirkreit (1993) was another. I lived in Baton Rouge, LA 1988-1992 and saw how Skip Bertman (A great coach) but litterally pitched Ben Mcdonald and Russ Springer to death, both had arm problems in the pros. While the track record of success of HS pitchers may be checkered, The Indians would rather have a fresh HS arm than one that was subjected to abuse from College coaches. John Farrell a former Tribe pitcher is another example I just thought of that was pitched to death at OSU and later developed arm problems in the pros. The point is College pitchers are as much of a risk as HS pitchers, while obviousely they are further developed but also have more miles on the odometer, there are good arguments either way.



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The Indians should have taken Aaron Heilman instead of Denham with the 22nd pick. Heilman will be in the majors in 2003 and Denham will be lucky to make it by 2006.

TR, Hudson-Mulder-Zito are good player development, not just good scouting. Geeez.

I'm betting the farm that Mirabelli selects a bunch of crappy high school power hitters that strike out 170 times with the 2002 draft. Might as well select Mark Folsom's little brother.

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Toronto had a better pitching staff in 1985, but the Royals' talent was spread around a little better.

The Blue Jays had Dave Stieb and Jimmy Key, and not much else. The Royals had Saberhagen, Leibrandt and Danny Jackson, and the best closer in baseball; that, and the clutch hitting of Brett gave them the AL pennant.

To this day, that formula would seem to work well: two dominant starters, a third pitcher who is better than average, a great closer, and some clutch hitting. Not much has changed.

This bodes well for the Tribe. Colon can be dominant. CC and Baez CAN be dominant. Wickman is automatic. All we need is the clutch hitting, and we have three guys who can do that at any time: Diaz, Burks and Thome.

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Wow Y'Town,
You actually seem to be really positive! http://www.hostboard.com/ubb/smile.gif haha...
Carolina, I was looking at both players on mlb.com in terms of the scouting report on the draft. One big issue I guess is that the HS pitcher is 4 years younger then a college pitcher. Plus at the moment, Heilman and Denham have about the same velocity, but theoretically, Denham will grow more and increase velocity as he gets older while Heilman has probably topped out. Whether or not the Tribe made the right selection won't be known for a little while. however, if you look at the pitching depth in the upper minors, you can understand why the Tribe is willing to wait on their 2001 pitchers.

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Wow...
I just noticed that a local boy, Bronson Sardiniha was drafted by the Yanks right before JD Martin...I wonder if the Tribe would have went with Sardiniha if the Yanks went another route.
Would have been nice to have a local boy to root for.

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Dan Denham will suck.

J.D. Martin will be a decent 4 starter.

Mike Conroy will suck.

Jake Dittler will be a decent 4 starter.

Nick Moran will be tight.

Travis Foley will be alright -- he's relief prospect.

Marcos Mendoza-- in two years it will be like "Marcos WHO?!"

Jim Ed Warden -- how could a guy with a name like that be any good. He sucks.

Willy Taveras will be tight though, just you wait and see.

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<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Carolina Blue:
Dan Denham will suck.

J.D. Martin will be a decent 4 starter.

Mike Conroy will suck.

Jake Dittler will be a decent 4 starter.

Nick Moran will be tight.

Travis Foley will be alright -- he's relief prospect.

Marcos Mendoza-- in two years it will be like "Marcos WHO?!"

Jim Ed Warden -- how could a guy with a name like that be any good. He sucks.

Willy Taveras will be tight though, just you wait and see.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
You're questioning Tommy Lee's credentials, what are yours, and why would we believe your scouting reports over his?


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Yah I agree, I really wonder where Carolina is coming up with all these predictions. Especially with draft picks taht have only played one season of rookie ball.

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