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So much for my house in the Bahamas. [img]frown.gif[/img]
I think GL took the bad juju with him to Florida. Twenty five years of good weather. GL moves, and DAMN!!!
Let's all blame GL. The bench is right here.
This SOB can come up around Cuba and follow Charlies path.
WTNT34 KNHC 031437
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST FRI SEP 03 2004
...IVAN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.9 WEST OR ABOUT 745
MILES...1200 KM...SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES ... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION... 9.6 N... 32.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST.
FORECASTER PASCH
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">I guess we can blame him for the problems we've had here. We can also be thankful he vows never to come back.Quote:
Originally posted by gae:
So much for my house in the Bahamas. [img]frown.gif[/img]
I think GL took the bad juju with him to Florida. Twenty five years of good weather. GL moves, and DAMN!!!
Let's all blame GL. The bench is right here.
On it's current path, it looks like Florida could be in for another one.
Havent they had enough?
Hope it veres off into the altalntic or something.
Hope all you want, Greg, but I think South Florida is gong to get hit again. [img]graemlins/thumbs_down.gif[/img]
No word yet from Trav's son Michael; his place is about 6 miles south of the landfall point. As posted in the Frances thread, when I talked with him on Thursday, his plans were to wait it out in his apartment. If he went into Stuart to hang out at the restaurant where he works, he was about three miles from landfall.
We did get a call from Trav's ex-wife, Sally though. She's in West Palm, and other than losing all of her new landscaping, she has only a leak in the roof of her Florida room.
No power, though, and no way to drive north to find Michael. She and a neighbor got to the neighbor's office with power from a generator and climbed 14 floors to recharge their cell phones.
Gas stations in West Palm are still closed.
Hope you hear from him soon, and hope he's allright.
Speaking of which, anyone hear from our resident florida dweller today?
I've chosen not to call GL, thinking that folks that really, really need to make contact need the cell towers.
GL's message on Saturday said he'd call when it was all over. With Ivan on the horizon, I'm thinking it will be October.
We had another message from Sally; Michael is fine. No cell service.
Well I've been here a year and 3 months, so it hardly happened as soon as I moved here. Again. I lived here before. Last season we didn't even have so much as one hurricane to worry about. This season is making up for all the lucky years I guess...
Psst, hey reason: your area is fucked up because of self-loathing homophobics like you who think you know everything when in fact you are clueless. Your lover/boyfriend/boytoy, whatever you choose to call him, must live in hell being around you so much. Maybe he's working off bad karma from a previous life? Maybe he feels sorry for you and hopes you'll just grow out of it? From what I can see you were born an asshole and just got bigger....
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">While all of that is true, I think it's more fun to blame you.Quote:
Originally posted by G L:
Well I've been here a year and 3 months, so it hardly happened as soon as I moved here. Again. I lived here before. Last season we didn't even have so much as one hurricane to worry about. This season is making up for all the lucky years I guess...
[img]smile.gif[/img]
Looks like IVAN is now really a puzzle. On it's current curse it coulkd either turn in tword florida, go straight ahead into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and/or the Panhandle of Florida
Or, it could turn west tword Texas.
Guess it really is just a wait and see thing, but it looks like it's going south of most of the Caribean Islands.
While I don't wish such a storm on anyone, I think it's someone else's turn this time. Florida has had enough for awhile.
Cuba sure doesn't need another one either.
<font color="#000002" size="1">[ September 07, 2004 11:35 AM: Message edited by: G L ]</font>
I just got word from Trav that he's going to visit his daughter in Tallahassee in a couple of weeks.
My task is to find them a place to stay. On the beach. Or a river.
If anyone has super powers, please pass them this way.
Hello, Tallahassee!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/081513W5.gif
well if my lottery numbers come up tonight I better go tomorrow to collect in Tallahassee, and not wait until Friday.... [img]wink.gif[/img]
UH OH! [img]eek.gif[/img]
If the curent course is correct, then it looks like the south, southeastern part of Florida is gonna take the hit this time.
Ivan's a Cat5 storm. 160+ mph winds.
Bad juju man... [img]eek.gif[/img] [img]confused.gif[/img]
Actually they detected winds at 350 ft above the surface in excess of 210mph! [img]eek.gif[/img]
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Not to suggest GL should stay put (because he shouldn't), but past paths suggest Ivan will head toward Texas or Louisiana, not Florida.Quote:
Originally posted by gae:
Check out current and historical storm patterns in the Florida tropics:
http://www.local6.com/hurricanes/index.html#
Click on "track the storm" on the left bar. You can overlap storm patterns and follow their path. Central Florida got nailed with Charley and Francis (see where they cross).
The historical patterns also suggest that if you want to avoid hurricanes, North Carolina is not the place to be.
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">I'll consult this board before making a decision so I can see what you suggest I should do. [img]graemlins/sleepy.gif[/img]Quote:
Not to suggest GL should stay put (because he shouldn't),
Ture, almost all storm that pass south of Cuba do not hit Florida.
But GL is there now.
Charley passed south of Cuba.
So many hurricanes...I think the world is coming to an end!
Just as a kind suggestion, after work tommorow, pack up your dogs and few necessities and head north to someplace like Atlanta. From there play it by ear. Fill up your car with gas right now.
Florida is no place to be right now. Either is a trailer.
Cuba has mountains in excess of 6,000 feet. If Ivan stays on the projected course, it will rip itself apart going over Cuba.
Glad I don't smoke Havanas
Check out current and historical storm patterns in the Florida tropics:
http://www.local6.com/hurricanes/index.html#
Click on "track the storm" on the left bar. You can overlap storm patterns and follow their path. Central Florida got nailed with Charley and Francis (see where they cross).
I topped off my tank with gas yesterday and had to look to find a station with gas, most are still dry from Frances. I'm waiting to see what develops by Saturday before making any kind of evacuation plans.
I buy a convertible again and every weekend since (with the exception of one) we don't just have rainy weather but freaking hurricanes!!!
In one of the many news articles about this unusually active hurricane season it explained that although abnormally active, it is still within "normal" parameters. They take into account hurricane activity from the past 100 yrs and it said that there have been other very active seasons too. This one seems all the more abnormal because of the recent period of no activity at all for Florida basically since Andrew in 1992. And while this has been more active than usual, experts say it does not constitute some dramatic climatic change or necessary trend.
I still think the world is coming to an end!
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">No that will be November 3rd if Kerry is elected.Quote:
Originally posted by d_squared:
I still think the world is coming to an end!
Or, it could be Tuesday morning.
http://doppler.tbo.com/wfla_tropic1.jpg
Sure is going to be a rough ride down to Florida on Friday the 17th, I wonder if my wife would let me drive her Audi.
<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">That is only one of 1/2 dozen projections. The only agreement so far is that it is going to hit somewhere in Cuba. After that they have several models, numerous upper level disturbances can change its course. I heard a rumor they are going to announce mandatory evacuations as early as tomorrow already. 2 days before it might even come here. If I do evacuate, I'm not doing it until at least sometime Sunday.Quote:
Oh and that projection from Storm Team 8? They were announcing this storm as "headed right at us" when it was still 2,000 miles away in the Atlantic. That station is using these storms in as much sensationalized way they can to keep viewers glued to the tv set. I look at the most recent update and shut it off....
This thing is getting on my nerves. Each new projection has us worrying about someone else!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics...F/110918W5.gif
Ok...if this thing moves any farther west, there's a HUGE problem, and it's called New Orleans. A cat 5 hurricane striking a city that sits below sea level is a recipe for disaster.
Then there's that river that parallels the Mississippi. A geography teacher back in college described a scenario of a major storm altering the path of the Mississippi, where it ends up draining into this parallel river.
a direct landfall, Category 5 hurricane on New Orleans would bring unimaginable destruction to that city. There would be nothing left. I know someone who lives on Bourbon Street in his 90s. (my old neighbor back in Ohio, her brother) I worry about him if it makes landfall there. He has lived there the past 50 yrs and wouldn't live anywhere else even at gunpoint.
This could be another huge mess.
Winds at 160 last night and this morning.
Waves reported to be two stories high in some areas.
I plan to go down to the beach when it is making its way past. Looks like it will be several hundred miles away but even so it will churn up some awesome wave action. And shells. And maybe a Spanish gold coin or 2... [img]graemlins/money.gif[/img]