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I've noticed a trend with the Indians and perhaps other teams as well in which they try to steal bases more often early on in the year, then as the year progresses, either less attempts are made, or the runners are more often thrown out so they run less. (If you think this position is refuteable, please show me).
This tells me that the stolen bases that are stolen in April and May have a cumulative affect throughout the rest of the season. They allow the runner to gain a reputation for the stolen base, and even if they attempt fewer stolen bases as the season wears on, the reputation for stealing a base has been created, and the result should be better pitches for the batters that follow.
My point is, other than Grady, and perhaps Barfield, who in the line-up can steal a base? Do we expect our vets to try and steal an occasional base early on in the season to put the pitcher ill at ease, do the vets risk an injury in the colder weather, or will their veteran experience let them steal the easy bases early on as pitchers and catchers get up to speed on their mechanics?
Is it perhaps backwards to possibly bring up speed later in the season in the form of Gutz and Choo? Wouldn't their impact be greatest earlier in the season?
I worry that Coco's impact is still being underacknoledged. The Indians may have struggled early on last season because without Coco, team speed was basically gone and the pitchers pitched exactly as they wanted.
The team improved when a combination of an improved bullpen AND team speed from Choo, Inglett, and Luna gave us a new edge we were missing, even as infield defense wasn't so good.
It's possible that none of those three guys will even make the team.
Now, it is possible that the OBP of our platoon system may be so high that we overall see a benefit that outweighs stealing some bases early on? Is it also possible that this is the year that Vic breaks the record for GIDP's as well?
<font color="#a62a2a" size="1">[ February 09, 2007 04:16 AM: Message edited by: Alex ]</font>
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These numbers were provided on another forum.
Apr - 7
May - 13
Jun - 7
Jul - 7
Aug - 4
Sep - 17
28 SB in 87 games prior to the break, 27 SB in 75 games after...
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Inglett & Choo contributed to the September high. Michaels was a surprise as well with 4 stolen bases. Grady ended the season being thrown out three straight times by A.J. Perzynski of the Chicago White Sox. They were all very close plays at second, a blink of an eye and we would have been a very robust 20 stolen bases and 3 caught stealing. As it was, 17 stolen, 6 caught was pretty decent, although the opposition stole 27 bases in September.
If Michaels could steal 20 bases, that would be a boost this team. I still Coco in left would have been very interesting. My point being we still have Marte but simply trade to get Coco back.
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I don't think Marte will be the starting 3b all season. I think that by June 15th he will be replaced by Blake (hope I'm wrong, but I'm not in his camp right now). If Choo makes the team, and if he's allowed to play, he'll be good on the bases.
