FOREX COMMENTARY - NOVEMBER

[profi-forex]

TODAY`s DATA: (02.11.2004) (US TIME)

GBP

04:30am - CIPS Construction Industry PMI prev. 1,9B for. 1,7B

04:30am - PMI Construction (survey) prev. 56,8 for. 56,2

04:00am - CBI Distributive Trades Report prev. -4/b>

AUD

05:30pm - RBA RATE DECISION prev. 5,25% for. 5,25%

USD

ELECTIONS DAY


------------------------------------------------------------------------


02.11.2004


EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2700) - ALL MARKT IS VERY NERVOUS TODAY
BECAUSE OF ELECTION DAY IN USA
SUPPORT - 1,2690, 1,2620/50
RESISTANCE - 1,2750, 1,2815/40

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 106,51) - RANGE 105,80 - 107,00. IF BOJ WILL
NOT HELP USD NEAR TERM WE SHOULD SEE COURSE USD/JPY AT 100,00.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2053) - RESISTANCE 1,2080, WE CAN`T RULLED
OUT ATTACK 1,2130. SUPPORT 1,1985/1,2015.

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8326) - STRONG SUPPORT 1,8250 AND 1,8200.
RESISTACNE 1,8370/1,8400.

[profi-forex]

TODAY`s DATA: (04.11.2004) (US TIME)

CHF

01:45am - SECO Consumer Climate prev. -12 for. -13

01:45am - CPI m/m prev. 0,0% for. 0,7%

01:45am - CPI y/y prev. 0,9% for. 1,1%

GBP

04:30am - Total New Construction Orders prev. 2338,0

05:30am - NTC, Deloitte & REC Report on Jobs

06:00am - BRC Shop Price Index

07:00am - BOE Announces Rates prev. 4,75% for. 4,75%

EUR

05:00am - PPI m/m prev. 0,4% for. 0,2%

05:00am - PPI y/y prev. 3,1% for. 3,3%

05:00am - Unemployment Rate prev. 9,0% for. 9,0%

07:45am - ECB Announces Interest Rates prev. 2,0% for. 2,0%

USD

08:30am - Nonfarm Productivity prev. 2,5% for. 1,6%

08:30am - Unit Labor Costs prev. 1,8% for. 2,5%

08:30am - Initial Jobless Claims prev. 350K for. 340K

08:30am - Continuing Claims prev. 2823K

CAD

08:30am - BoC Deputy Governor Kennedy Speaks

08:30am - Building Permits prev. -4,6% for. 2,0%

10:00am - Ivey Purchasing Managers Index prev. 66,0 for. 63,0

NZD

04:45pm - Trade Balance (Revised)

------------------------------------------------------------------------

04.11.2004 (06:42am US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2852) - TODAY MORNING WE SOW UNSUCCECFULL TEST 1,2840 REGION, THATS WHY LATER WAS BACK UP MOVE TOWARDS 1,2780. AT THOSE REGION BULLS ATTACK ONES MOREREGION 1,2840 AND LATER TESTED 1,2880. BEFORE TOMMOROWS US DATA (NFP) BULLS WILL TRY TEST 1,2900.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 106,18) - SUPPORT 105,80. RESISTANCE 106,40 AND 107,00.

USD/CHF (CURRENT LEVEL 1,1896) - THIS PAIR IS NOW AT LOWEST REGION FROM 8 YEARS. PROBABLY NEXT BULLS` TARGET WILL BE 1,1600. RESISTANCE 1,1950 AND 1,2000

GBP/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,8472) - BULLS CAN`T HOLD 1,8500. AFTER UNSUCCESFUL TEST BULLS FIND SUPPORT AT 1,8410/30. NOW THE TRY ONES MORE BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1,8500. NEXT RESISTANCE IS 1,8550.

[profi-forex]

09.11.2004

TOMMOROW WE WILL KNOW FED DECISION ABOUT RISE RATE (MARKET FORECAST RISE RATE TO 2,00%). IT SEEEMS LIKE VERY IMPORTANT IS FED COMMENTARY ABOUT RATE IN DECEMBER.

TODAY WE EXPECT FALLS EUR/USD TOWARDS 1,2830/50 AND EVEN 1,2800. RESISTANCE FOR THIS PAIR IS 1,2960/84.

THE NEAREST FED DECISION SHOULD HELP USD ON ALL MARKET:
- USD/CHF - WE SHOULD SEE TEST 1,1870REGION;
- GBP/USD - RESISTANCE 1,8570/1,8615, TODAY WE EXPECT FALLS TOWARDS 1,8450
- USD/JPY - THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 105,70/80, NEXT 106,20/40.

HAPPY TRADING
PROFI-FOREX TEAM

[profi-forex]

10.11.2004

TODAY WE HAVE VERY MUCH INFORMATION FROM US AND EUROPEAN MARKET. THIS
COULD CHANGE EVERYTHING ON CURRENCIES COURSES. THE MOST IMPORTANT FOR
MARKET IS TRADE BALANCE FROM USA AT 08:30AM US TIME AND FED DECISION
ABOUT RISE RATE AT 02:15PM US TIME.

COURSE EUR/USD AFTER REACHED MAX AT 1,2984 BACK TO 1,2900. THE FIRST
SUPPORT - 1,2880 NEXT 1,2440/50. IT SEEMS LIKE TODAY`S FED DECISION
ABOUT RISE RATE COULD HELP USD, BUT MOST IMPORTANT INFLUENCE COULD
HAVE COMMENTARY ABOUT FED MEETING IN DECEMBER. IF FED GIVE TRADERS TO
UNDERSTAND THAT WILL RISE RATE AGAIN, BULLS ON EUR/USD MARKET WOULD BE
UNDER PRESSURE. WATCH THEN REGIONS 1,2800 AND 1,2760.

[profi-forex]

12.11.2004

WE HAD MANY IMPORTANT NEWS ( ELECTION IN USA, VERY GOOD NFP, GOOD
TRADE BALANCE IN USA AND ROSE RATES). ALL DATA SHOULD HAVE GOOD
INFLUENCE FOR USD, BUT FOR EXAMPLE: WITH EUR, USD FORTIFY ONLY TO
1,2850 REGION. BECAUSE OF SO WEAK REACTION OF THIS DATA WE EXPECT IN
NEAR TERM TEST 1,3000 REGION AND ATTACK AT 1,3200.
WITH JPY, AFTER TEST 107,30 REGION TWO DAYS AGO, USD FALL BY ABOUT 100
PIPS. WE EXPECT TO THE END OF THE YEAR BREAK LASTS SUPPORTS AND TEST
100,00 REGION.

HAPPY TRADING
PROFI-FOREX TEAM

[profi-forex]

16.11.2004

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,2940) - YESTERDAY WE SAW UNSUCCESFUL TEST 1,3000 REGION. WE FIND SUPPORT AT 1,2915/25. IF TODAY SUPPORT HOLDS WE SHOULD ONES MORE TEST 1,3000 REGION, BUT BREAK SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 1,2840/70 REGION.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 105,43) - BULLS STILL HOLD SUPPORT AT 105,00 REGION. BREAK THIS SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TOWARDS 104,00 , BUT HOLD SUPPORT WILL HELP IN ATTACK 106,00 REGION.

[profi-forex]

22.11.2004 ( 06:49AM US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,3035) - MARKET LOOKS LIKE VERY QUEIT TODAY. PROBABLY WE WILL HAVE NARROW RANGE TODAY - 1,2980 - 1,3050. EVENTUALLY BREAK SUPPORT WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 1,2935 REGION.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 103,08) - THIS PAIR FIND SUPPORT AT 102,80. THE NEAREST RESISTANCE 103,40/70 AND 104,20. WATCH MARKET CAREFULLY.

[profi-forex]

23.11.2004 ( 03:18AM US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,3006) - AFTER YESTERDAY VERY QUEIT DAY BEARS DURING JAPANESE SESSION ATTACKED. WE TESTED SUPPORT AT 1,2975. IT SEEMS LIKE THIS WASN`T THE LAST BEAR`S WORD AND WE COULD SEE TESTS 1,2930 AND EVEN 1,2850/70 REGIONS.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 103,31) - USD HOLDS ABOVE 103,00 REGION. DURING JAPANESE SESSION WE TESTED 103,60 EGION. NEXT RESISTANCE IS 104,00/20.

[profi-forex]

25.11.2004 ( 05:05AM US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,3186) - TODAY EUR TOUCHED 1,3200 REGION. IT
SEEMS LIKE REGION 1,3190/1,3210 COULD BE STRONG RESISTANCE. AFTER TEST
THIS REGION WE COULD BACK TO 1,3150/30 AND EVEN 1,3080. ON THIS
REGIONS WE COULD FIND NEW EUR BUYERS .

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 102,64) - WE TESTED TODAY 102,40, BREAK THIS
REGION WILL OPEN THE WAY TO FALLS TOWARDS 102,20 - 101,90. ABOVE
103,00 REGION WILL NEGATE THIS SCENARIO.

[profi-forex]

29.11.2004 ( 06:24AM US TIME)

EUR/USD (CURRENT LEVEL 1,3186) - ON FRIDAY EUR HAD NEW MAXIMUM AT 1,3328. BUT IN A FEW NEXT HOURS WE SAW PROFITS TAKEN AND EUR WEAKED TO 1,3180 REGION TO END DAY AT 1,3290 REGION. SUPPORTS: 1,3215/30 AND 1,3150/80. RESISTANCE: 1,3328. WE EXPECT CORRECTION TOWARDS 1,3150 WHERE WE SHOULD FIND NEW BUYERS EUR.

USD/JPY (CURRENT LEVEL 102,64) - USD HAD ON FRIDAY MINIMUM AT 102,13 FROM WHERE WE SAW PROFITS TAKEN WHICH REACHED 103,40 REGION. SUPPORTS: 102,40/60 , 102,15 AND 101,85. RESISTANCE: 103,13 AND 103,40.