Let's try something different

[Ytown Tribe fan]

In his book on managers, Bill James makes the claim that the order of the lineup doesn't make a difference. He constructed an "optimum lineup" and a "worst possible lineup" based on the same players in different batting orders, and could only come up with a 5% difference in runs scored over a season. The biggest determinant was getting the most PA's to the guys with the highest OBA's.

How about Cholly constructing our everyday lineup based solely on OBA? Never mind speed, power, K's, or anything else. Just put the regulars in order of OBA from highest to lowest and let 'em go at it.

In theory, it should result in more runs, since the leadoff batter will make fewer outs, and will get more PA's. Increasing the total number of PA's in the 1st two innings will maximize the runs scored in those innings, and also the 4th, 5th, 7th and 8th innings.

What the hell, let's lead Thome off, bat Lawton 2nd, followed by Burks and Diaz.

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[The Crank]

Back when I was a member of Project Scoresheet I did a study on the Pirates lineups and discovered, taking away the at bats of the leadoff hitter (ie the first at bat of every game) the best leadoff hitter on the team was Tony Pena (yes this was that long ago). Ever since I had always wondered if the leadoff hitter was overrated.

(I am old enough to remember when Chuck Tanner managed the A's and had Matt Alexander as his designated leadoff hitter on the road - he would get one at bat a game - the first one - and then his 'defensive replacement' would come in and play the remainder of the game.)

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[Ytown Tribe fan]

Project Scoresheet probably did more for modern-day baseball stats than anything else.
Nill James was seminal in helping fans look at stats intelligently. Of course, he moved on to fine historical and anecdotal books on baseball after the publishing world caught up with (and took over for) his work.

Now he has gone back to stats for a book that may be equally seminal: "Win Shares", due out next month. The new method MAY become the single best way of measuring any ballplayer's contributions to his team.

In fact, I'l go out on a limb and predict that someday Bill James will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. Watch and see.

One thing he found is that the leadoff man is very important IN A GIVEN INNING. I will never forget when the '85 Royals picked up Lonnie Smith and batted him leadoff, pushing Willie Wilson to 2nd. More than any other, that one move got them to the World Series.

Some fans complained, since Willie was outbatting Lonnie by 20 points, and Willie was a former batting champion. Also, Willie had some more speed too. But Lonnie drew 80 walks a year and Willie once was quoted as saying, "If I wanted to walk, I'd be a mailman." Seriously.

The combination of Lonnie's high OBA, Willie's good BA and George Brett batting third was unbeatable; that, and some great pitching was what they needed.

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[Hawaii007]

I always wondered as well, how the average OBP for leadoff hitters in the ML was like really low this season, in fact hovering around .350 so when ESPN was doing their Hhot Stove Heaters on the M's, I was surprised that they were all hyped about Ichiro. BUt then they clarified that his OBP was .385 which was the highest, AMONG ALL ML LEAD-OFF hitters making him of course the most valuable lead off hitter in the league bar none. Then I noticed that Edgar and Olerud both had OBPs of above .400 but hit in the middle of the lineup. I think that OBP is a very important indicator for a good leadoff hitter, but batting Thome would not be a good use of his power and hitting. Having someone who walks a lot like Rickey in the lead off position is great, because a walk is not completely equivilent to a hit because a walk does not drive in a run from second base. BUT a walk is as valuable as a hit when there is NO ONE on base. So having someone who has a .400 OBP but only hits punch and judy in the low .300s high .200s maximizes his walks. Man...this entire statement sounds so convoluted, but do you guys know what I am getting at? Sigh...I am still half-awake, if this totally does not make any sense please just let me know.

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[Alex]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Hawaii007:
Sigh...I am still half-awake, if this totally does not make any sense please just let me know.
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Yes, it means a light hitting lead-off guy with a high OBP (Brady Anderson) has more value than one realizes, especially if he has any speed left.


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Alex

[*TR]

Brady's OBP last year was .311. I think you can put a fork in Brady.

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[Alex]

I didn't realize it was that low.

I guess having an OBP 100 points or more over your average is somewhat worthless if you only hitting .200.

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Alex

[Ytown Tribe fan]

Each position in the batting order, strting with 1st, is worth 5% more PA's than the next one down, ending with the 9th position.

Putting your most productive hitter first (either OBA or OPS or RC/G, or whatever) gives that batter 5% more PA's than the next most productive hitter, and so on.

True, Thome wouldn't draw nearly so man walks batting leadoff as Lawton hopefully will. But batting a guy with a low OBA 2nd because you think he has good bat control or whatever takes a lot of PA's away from a hitter who won't make as many outs.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, a million times if I have to: Outs are the single most important offensive category AND the single most important pitching/defensive category. You only get 3 each inning, then you have to start all over again.

Every game is, in effect 3 outs long, multiplied by as man innings as it takes for a team to get ahead and stay ahead. Outs are EVERYTHING, and OBA is the best measure of how efficient a batter is at not making them.

Giving Branyan 50 more PA's than Diaz is just plain dumb.

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[*TR]

<BLOCKQUOTE><font size="1" face="Verdana, Arial">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Ytown Tribe fan:


What the hell, let's lead Thome off, bat Lawton 2nd, followed by Burks and Diaz.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

For those with open minds that would probably be productive. I think you could switch Lawton and Thome and it would work better in reality(but I can't prove that). Gutierrez would actually have the 4th best OBP at .345, then Diaz at .327.
Which may show a weakness in the 'new' Tribe. At .327 Diaz is already below the American League average OBP(.329),
We only have 4 players with OBP over the league average. And I believe Gutierrez OBP in 2001 was a career high. He's unlikely to match that again.
Any sessions at Spring Traing on how to work counts and take a walk?

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[the teacher]

Interesting discussion. My comment is that by switching the batting order the stats would change. Just because Thome walks a lot in the #5 slot doesn't mean he would walk that much as a leadoff hitter. If he comes up with a man on 2nd or 3rd, you pitch around him because you don't want a 2 or 3 run homer, and you don't even want a long fly ball. If he's leading off with no one on, you go after him.

2.) Lead off speed is a huge factor. One reason leadoff hitters aren't walked very much is because they're often fast and a walk is like a double. That's another reason why Ichiro doesn't get as many walks as you would suspect.

If Thome were a leadoff hitter he wouldn't walk as much, and if Ichiro was hitting #5 he'd walk more.

Hey Genius, do you remember Heisenberg's uncertainty principle?

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Lex clavatoris designati rescindenda est